The Tampa Bay Rays face elimination pressure of a different kind Friday night, trailing the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in the American League Championship Series with Game 4 set for 8 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. Cleveland’s 3-2 win in Game 3 on Thursday gave the Guardians their first lead of the series, and a win Friday would push the Rays to the brink of elimination. The biggest question entering the night: can Tampa Bay’s lineup, which has scored at a lower rate than Cleveland’s all series, find enough offense against a Guardians pitching staff that has outscored opponents by 18 runs over its last 10 games.
ALCS Game 4 Information
- Date: Friday, Oct. 16
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
- TV/Streaming: TBS, truTV, ERADM
- Series: ALCS, Cleveland leads 2-1
Cleveland won Game 1 7-3 and Game 3 3-2, while Tampa Bay took Game 2 3-1. The Guardians’ Game 3 win came on the road at Tropicana Field, putting Cleveland in position to take control of the series at home.
Why Does This Tampa Bay Rays Vs Cleveland Guardians Game Matter
A Cleveland win would push Tampa Bay to the edge of elimination with one loss left before the series ends. The Rays are making their third ALCS appearance in the franchise’s 29-season history and enter the series as the higher regular-season seed at 98-64, having won the AL East. Cleveland finished 85-77 and won the AL Central, then became just the 11th team in postseason history to overcome an 0-2 deficit in a best-of-five series during the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox.
That history matters here. Cleveland has now won four straight postseason games dating back to that ALDS comeback, including Game 1 and Game 3 of this series.
What Is The Expected Starting Pitching For Game 4
Nick Martinez is the probable starting pitcher for Tampa Bay, carrying a 4.91 ERA with no recorded decisions yet in the role, according to official data. Cleveland has not announced a probable starter for Game 4 in the data available. Game 3 saw Rays starter Griffin Jax face Guardians starter Gavin Williams, a pairing that followed Freddy Peralta and Parker Messick in Game 2. Peralta, acquired by Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, posted a 5-2 record and 3.25 ERA in 10 starts for the Rays after going 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA for the Mets earlier in the season, according to FOX Sports.
How Have The Lineups Performed Entering Game 4
Jose Ramirez has been Cleveland’s offensive engine, batting with 27 doubles and 12 home runs on the season and becoming the first Cleveland player to homer in consecutive postseason games since Francisco Lindor in 2018, according to ESPN. Ramirez also drew scrutiny in Game 2 for a fielding error that contributed to three unearned runs, a play he described through an interpreter: “The ball bounced right on the edge between the dirt and the turf, and that’s what made it a little more difficult for me. I tried to knock it down,” Ramirez said, according to ESPN.
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt addressed the sequence afterward, saying “Jose kind of got stuck. It looked like he just didn’t move his feet,” according to ESPN.
Patrick Bailey has carried Cleveland’s bat production of late, going 9 for 27 with four home runs over his past 10 games, per FOX Sports. For Tampa Bay, Yandy Diaz has hit .293 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs and 85 RBIs on the season, while Jonny DeLuca is 14 for 37 with two doubles and two home runs over his last 10 games. Tampa Bay’s lineup carries the best on-base percentage in the American League at .326, according to FOX Sports, even though the Rays’ collective batting average sits at .236 over their last 10 games.
What Is The Injury Situation For Both Teams
Cleveland’s injury report lists first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 10-day injured list with back inflammation and reliever Colin Holderman on the 15-day injured list following right wrist surgery, with a return date listed as Feb. 1, 2027. Reliever Andrew Walters is out following right elbow surgery.
Tampa Bay is dealing with a longer list. Starting pitcher Shane McClanahan is out with left forearm soreness, and the Rays have four players on the 60-day injured list: left fielder Gavin Lux (left shoulder inflammation), reliever Edwin Uceta (right shoulder strain), reliever Jonathan Heasley (right elbow fracture) and left fielder Jacob Melton (right hamstring strain). None of the four position-player absences were expected to be available for this series based on their listed injury designations.
By The Numbers
- Team ERA: Cleveland 2.54, Tampa Bay 2.72
- Batting average: Cleveland .230, Tampa Bay .197
- On-base percentage: Cleveland .321, Tampa Bay .249
- OPS: Cleveland .685, Tampa Bay .563
- Strikeouts per nine innings (pitching): Cleveland 12.9, Tampa Bay 9.8
- WHIP: Cleveland 1.01, Tampa Bay 0.96
- Runs per game: Cleveland 4.3, Tampa Bay 3.0
- Home runs (season totals): Cleveland 6, Tampa Bay 4
What Is The Key Matchup To Watch
Cleveland’s bullpen depth figures to be central again after five relievers combined to allow just one run over five innings in Game 1 following an early exit from starter Foster Griffin, per Sporting News. That bullpen now carries a team ERA of 2.54 through the postseason sample in the data, against a Tampa Bay lineup posting a .197 team batting average over the same window. The Rays’ approach of working counts, reflected in their AL-best .326 on-base percentage during the regular season, will be tested against a Cleveland pitching staff that has racked up 102 strikeouts over 71 innings this postseason stretch.
On the other side, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff carries the better WHIP of the two clubs at 0.96, and its 58 strikeouts in 53 innings suggest the Rays can keep Cleveland’s lineup, led by Ramirez’s recent power surge, from stringing together big innings if the rotation and bullpen hold form.
What To Watch For
Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash said after the Rays’ Game 1 loss, “It’s been a while since we lost, so I think that’s a good thing, and I know the guys will come back and respond tomorrow.” That response produced a Game 2 win, but Cleveland answered by taking Game 3 on the road. Vogt credited his club’s resilience after Game 1, saying “We got punched early.
And our pitching staff, credit to them, for stopping it and keeping us in the game as long as they did. And the offense came alive.”
A Cleveland win Friday would put the Guardians one win from the World Series. A Tampa Bay win would even the series at 2-2 and send it back to a decisive stretch. For more on how the series has unfolded, see the Rays’ Game 2 win and the Guardians’ Game 1 victory for context on how each team has adjusted pitching staffs through the series.
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