Seven AP Top 25 teams lost in Week 9, and the fallout reshaped projections for the College Football Playoff field. The most jarring shift came from Ohio State, which dropped out of playoff contention in at least one projection after falling to unranked USC, while Wake Forest’s strong season has pushed the Demon Deacons into the conversation for an at-large berth. The official CFP selection committee releases its next rankings Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, giving context to how these outside projections may or may not hold up.
Ohio State’s Collapse From No. 2
Ohio State entered Week 9 ranked No. 2 and left it reeling. USC beat the Buckeyes 30-18, a result made more notable by the absence of starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Freshman Luke Fahey started in his place against a USC team that was unranked entering the week.
According to Yahoo Sports, that loss was enough to pull Ohio State from at least one projected playoff field entirely. The Buckeyes are still 6-1 overall and share the Big Ten lead with undefeated UCLA, but a defeat to an unranked opponent at this stage of the season carries weight with projection models that lean heavily on quality wins and losses. Ohio State’s loss to USC now stands as the defining result of its résumé heading into the committee’s first look at the field since the upset.
Wake Forest’s Rise Into The Field
Wake Forest sits at 6-1 and ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, and ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has the Demon Deacons projected as the No. 10 seed in the playoff, facing No. 7 BYU in the first round at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. That placement reflects Wake Forest’s emergence under coach Jake Dickert as a legitimate contender rather than a fringe name.
The projections for Wake Forest are not uniform. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach instead has the Demon Deacons missing the playoff and landing in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl against Oregon on Dec. 28 at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. Sports Illustrated projects a different fallback entirely, a Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup with Houston in Orlando if Wake Forest does not make the field. The spread across three projections shows how close Wake Forest sits to the playoff bubble.
The Path That Still Guarantees Wake Forest A Spot
None of the projection disagreement matters if Wake Forest finishes the job on the field. Winning out and capturing the ACC championship, which will most likely require beating Miami, secures an automatic playoff berth regardless of where committee members rank the Demon Deacons relative to other one-loss teams. That path removes the guesswork tied to strength of schedule and conference comparisons that currently separate Bonagura’s optimistic seed from Schlabach’s bowl projection.
Counterpoint: Other One-Loss Teams Still Have Strong Cases
Ohio State’s drop and Wake Forest’s rise do not mean the playoff picture has settled. Indiana sits at No. 4 with its only loss a 19-15 game against Ohio State, and transfer quarterback Josh Hoover has completed 62% of his passes for 1,741 yards, 18 touchdowns and just one interception, with a 170.9 rating. Indiana’s defense ranks second nationally in points allowed at 12.0 per game, giving the Hoosiers a résumé that outside projections will have to weigh against Wake Forest’s climb. Indiana’s matchup with Minnesota factored into that record, with Minnesota sitting at 5-2 after averaging 26.6 points per game behind quarterback Drake Lindsey.
Georgia also strengthened its case with a 27-8 win over Florida, a game Georgia controlled from start to finish even after Florida switched quarterbacks under coach Jon Sumrall. Wisconsin’s win over USC in Week 8, called the biggest of coach Luke Fickell’s tenure, adds another data point to how quickly results are reordering the projected field. None of these teams can be dismissed simply because Wake Forest and Ohio State dominated the Week 9 headlines.
What To Watch Next
The actual CFP rankings arrive Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, the first real test of whether Ohio State’s slide and Wake Forest’s climb match what outside projections now suggest. Wake Forest’s next opportunity to strengthen its case, and eventually face Miami for the ACC title, will determine whether the Demon Deacons need to rely on an at-large bid at all. Ohio State’s response in the weeks ahead, starting with how it handles the quarterback situation behind Julian Sayin and Luke Fahey, will shape whether the Buckeyes can climb back into the field before the committee’s later rankings.
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