No. 22 Houston takes its 4-1 record on the road to face Kansas State on Saturday, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. The Wildcats enter at 3-1, and the matchup brings together two of the most efficient third-down offenses in the country, according to Sports Illustrated.
Houston ranks first nationally in third-down conversion percentage at 65.5%, having moved the chains on 40 of 61 attempts. Kansas State sits right behind at 65%, converting 39 of 60 chances, per Sports Illustrated. That statistical overlap sets up a game that could hinge on which offense keeps extending drives against a defense built to force a quick stop.
Houston Vs Kansas State Game Information
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
- TV: Fox
- Weather: 84 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation
By The Numbers
- Points per game: Houston 41.0, Kansas State 40.5
- Total yards per game: Houston 483.2, Kansas State 480.3
- Passing yards per game: Houston 253.8, Kansas State 239.5
- Rushing yards per game: Houston 229.4, Kansas State 240.8
- Third-down conversion rate: Houston 65.57%, Kansas State 65.00%
- Opponent third-down conversion rate allowed: Houston 33.8% (22 of 65), Kansas State 33.3% (18 of 54)
- Turnover differential: Houston +1, Kansas State +1
- Sacks recorded: Houston 10, Kansas State 12
Houston Cougars Outlook
Houston brings a balanced attack built around quarterback Conner Weigman, who has completed 91 of 135 passes for 1,186 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Weigman has also added six rushing touchdowns, giving the Cougars a dual threat at the position. His 171.2 passer rating and 8.9 yards per pass attempt reflect an offense that has found explosive plays through the air.
The ground game has been more uneven week to week. Houston ran for 388 yards at 8.6 yards per carry against Southern, according to Yahoo Sports, but managed just 155 yards on 43 carries in a 27-17 win over UCF and 177 yards on 34 carries in a 26-28 loss to Texas Tech. Running back Re’Shaun Sanford II leads the team with 314 yards and two touchdowns on 55 carries, and Yahoo Sports reports he averages 11.5 yards per carry on runs outside the left tackle, a number that points to a clear strength the coaching staff is likely to target. Houston’s 65.57% third-down conversion rate on the season gives the offense a tool to extend drives even when the ground attack stalls.
Kansas State Wildcats Outlook
Kansas State counters with quarterback Avery Johnson, who has thrown for 910 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions while also leading the team in rushing with 291 yards and three scores on 30 carries. The Wildcats average 480.2 total yards and 40.5 points per game, numbers built largely on offensive balance between Johnson’s arm and legs.
Kansas State’s most recent outing exposed a vulnerability up front. The Wildcats ran 80 offensive plays for 447 yards and held the ball for more than 33 minutes against Cincinnati, yet still lost 31-26 after their defense gave up significant rushing yardage, according to Yahoo Sports. That report describes a Kansas State defense built for sideline-to-sideline speed but lacking size and strength in the trenches, a profile that could matter against a Houston run game ranked 19th nationally, just behind Cincinnati’s 18th-ranked attack.
Key Matchup
The clearest matchup to watch is Houston’s perimeter rushing attack against a Kansas State front that Yahoo Sports describes as undersized against power runs. Sanford’s 11.5 yards per carry mark on outside-the-tackle runs stands well above his 5.0 yards per carry on A-gap attempts through 14 carries, suggesting Houston’s coaching staff has identified where the Wildcats’ front is most exposed. Kansas State’s defensive depth chart lists Wesley Fair and Beasley with an “or” designation at one spot, an indication the rotation up front is still being sorted out.
On the other side, Kansas State’s ability to sustain drives through the air and with Johnson’s legs will decide whether the Wildcats can match Houston possession for possession. Houston has limited opponents to converting just 22 of 65 third-down tries, so Kansas State’s own 65% third-down success rate will be tested against a defense that has closed the door more often than not this season.
Conner Weigman, Houston Quarterback
Weigman has been one of the most efficient passers in the country, throwing 11 touchdowns against a single interception while adding six scores on the ground. His dual-threat profile forces Kansas State’s defense to account for designed runs as well as the pass.
Re’Shaun Sanford II, Houston Running Back
Sanford’s splits between outside runs and interior carries make him the focal point of Houston’s rushing game plan. At 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds, he has turned perimeter runs into one of the offense’s most reliable sources of yardage.
Avery Johnson, Kansas State Quarterback
Johnson leads Kansas State in both passing and rushing, a workload that reflects how much the offense runs through him. His seven passing touchdowns and three rushing scores have carried a Wildcats attack that ranks among the nation’s best on third down.
What To Watch
Houston carries its No. 22 ranking and 4-1 record into a true road test against a Kansas State team that nearly knocked off Cincinnati in its last outing. With both offenses ranked among the nation’s top third-down units, the team that wins the down-and-distance battle is likely to control the clock and the scoreboard. Houston’s lone loss came against Texas Tech, while Kansas State’s came against Cincinnati, giving both sides a measuring-stick opportunity to show which loss was the outlier.
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