Saturday is the ATP semifinal day for the first Masters 1000 event on the clay in 2025. This tournament now has one lone clear front runner, but based on the year of tennis that it has been in the first four months of 2025, who really knows who can hoist a big title. Three of the four players who are playing are inside the world’s top 15, which means the talent level for Saturday is still extremely high. With the talent on display, there is a guaranteed fantastic final that will take place on Sunday, and a huge boost to the clay season will be achieved by someone.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina(+360) vs. Carlos Alcaraz(-465)–> Prediction: Alcaraz
The odds for this semifinals ATP match are so lopsided. Alcaraz escaped on Friday over Fils, but that will only propel him through this one. It has been great to see Fokina return to his form in the summer of 2023, but this doesn’t feel like he has a great chance to win this one. Alcaraz is the new mainstay to win tournaments for years to come on the dirt, and it takes a special performance to beat him on this surface.
Fokina will need a lot of help from the other side of the net, and he will have to play an all-time match just to hang around with Carlitos. Alacarz is just so brilliant on clay, and it has Rafa feeling like he steps on a clay court. Not only should he win this match, but he will be the heavy favorite on Sunday to win his second ATP title of 2025.
Lorenzo Musetti(+110) vs. Alex De Minaur(-132)–> Prediction: De Minaur
Jan 22, 2025; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Alex de Minaur of Australia exits during his match against Jannik Sinner of Italy in the quarterfinals of the men’s singles at the 2025 Australian Open at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn ImagesThis is easily the tightest match to predict on Monte-Carlo ATP on Saturday. De Minaur had the strangest win of the tournament so far on Friday after beating solid veteran Grigor Dimitrov 6-0 6-0 in 50 minutes. It felt like that could have been the match of the day, but it really disappointing. He is a player who needs his legs and fitness more than anyone, and he will have that and more for this match.
Musetti has played some brilliant tennis this week for the ATP, with wins over Berrettini and Tsitsipas. Friday’s win over the defending champ was an emotional win. That’s way tougher to bounce back from than what De Minaur did. The Australian is in peak form, and he will be ready to go to yet another final in 2025 with another potential recent final rematch with Carlos Alcaraz.
Conclusion on ATP
To wrap things up for the ATP, Saturday should be a fun day of tennis. While one match seems tight and the other feels like the favorite will easily win, that doesn’t mean something won’t happen on Saturday in Monte-Carlo. Tennis has been more wide open than ever on the men’s side.
Without the big four in play anymore on a big level in the ATP, it allowed so many players to reach some huge and career-changing wins and titles over the last three years. This has made the sport more watched than ever, has so many players now have huge followings after four players had them all.
