Job security for an NBA head coach is among one of the lowest in professional sports, with a typical median tenure of 2.5 to 3 seasons and a new hire entering the league every 2.4 seasons.
According to a new RotoGrinders survey of 4,398 U.S. NBA fans, Dallas Mavericks head coach Dusty May ranks sixth nationwide among NBA head coaches selected by fans as the first they expect to be fired first this season.
May isn’t the only NBA head coach on a potential hot seat, just one in the top 10 list. In addition, a bottom 10 list only adds to the cultural conversation regarding the NBA’s head coaches. Read on for the full study.
Key Findings
A new RotoGrinders survey ranked Dallas Mavericks head coach Dusty May sixth, at 4.52%, among head coaches selected by surveyed professional basketball fans as the first head coach they expect to be fired first this season.
Washington Wizards head coach Brian Keefe topped the list, of NBA head coaches to at 7.87%, followed by Los Angeles Lakers head coach JJ Redick, at 6.48%.
18.4% of surveyed Mavericks fans picked their own head coach, Dusty May, to be fired first this season, making him their most frequently selected coach.
Besides May, Mavs fans most frequently selected Keefe at 8.84%, followed by Doug Christie, at 6.12%, and Will Hardy and Jamahl Mosley tied at 5.44% each.
Top 10 NBA Head Coach Selections
Six NBA teams entered the regular season with new head coaches. The most notable departures include Doc Rivers’ retirement after a six-year tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks, Chauncey Billups’ departure from the Portland Trail Blazers after an FBI investigation into illegal sports betting, and Jamahl Mosley’s firing, just a day after the Orlando Magic lost the first-round series in seven games to the Detroit Pistons, after a five-year tenure.
Washington Wizards head coach Brian Keefe tops the top 10 list of NBA head coaches selected to be fired first, at 7.87%, followed by Los Angeles Lakers head coach JJ Redick, at 6.48%. Keefe appeared to shift from a difficult rebuild to a win-now direction, but it’s important to note that the development and execution of both veterans and prospects are equally important as wins.
Philadelphia 76ers head coach Nick Nurse, Chicago Bulls head coach Tiago Splitter, and Brooklyn Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez round out the top five at 4.89%, 4.82%, and 4.68%, respectively.
Dallas Mavericks head coach Dusty May, Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy, Charlotte Hornets head coach Charles Lee, Sacramento Kings head coach Doug Christie, and Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla round out the top 10 at 4.52%, 4.46%, 4.02%, 4.02%, and 4.00%, respectively.
Bottom 10 NBA Head Coach Selections
NBA head coaches with strong records and recent achievements are more likely to display job security to the general public. Established head coaches are the safest bets, thanks to positive factors like meeting team expectations, delivering on-court results, and holding good reputations.
Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault leads the bottom 10 list of NBA head coaches selected to be fired last, at 1.09%, followed by Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch, at 1.32%. Daigneault led the Thunder to a franchise-record 68 wins en route to the 2025 NBA Championship. He’s reportedly one of the longest-tenured — and most respected — head coaches in the league.
Portland Trail Blazers head coach Micah Nori, Orlando Magic head coach Sean Sweeney, and San Antonio Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson round out the bottom five, at 2.05%, 2.14%, and 2.32%, respectively.
Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic, Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra, Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle, Memphis Grizzlies head coach Tuomas Ilsalo, and Milwaukee Bucks head coach Taylor Jenkins round out the bottom 10, at 2.34%, 2.34%, 2.36%, 2.41%, and 2.50%, respectively.
Survey Details
RotoGrinders conducted the survey among 4,398 U.S. NBA fans from October 2-6, 2026. Team-specific findings were based on respondents who identified as supporters of each team.
National % represents the share of all surveyed NBA fans selecting each head coach. Own Fans % represents the share of surveyed supporters of that head coach’s team selecting him. These are NBA fans’ expectations, not actual firing probabilities.
Don't stop here
Every Score. Every Story. One Home.
Breaking sports, entertainment and news from across the Total Apex network, updated all day.
Get the Full Story →
