The qualifying offer system still shapes how MLB teams approach free agency, and this offseason the number tied to it is bigger than ever. The qualifying offer is expected to rise to $23.1 million for 2026-27, up from $22.03 million last year, according to the New York Post. That increase, combined with draft-pick compensation rules that hit teams differently based on their financial standing, will influence how clubs pursue this winter’s top rejecting free agents.
What Is The MLB Qualifying Offer?
The qualifying offer is a one-year contract value set by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB, according to the Post. A team can only extend the offer to a player once in his career. If he rejects it and signs elsewhere, his old team receives draft-pick compensation while the signing team gives one up.
The timeline is tight. Teams have five days after the World Series ends to extend a qualifying offer, and the player then has 10 days to accept or reject it, per the Post.
How Do Draft-Pick Penalties Differ By Team?
The compensation structure is not uniform. Teams that sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer forfeit draft picks, and the severity of that forfeiture depends on the signing team’s luxury tax and revenue-sharing status, according to the Post. In other words, the richest clubs that have exceeded the luxury tax threshold face steeper draft-pick losses than smaller-market teams receiving revenue sharing. The exact pick counts and rounds tied to each tier were not detailed in the report, but the tiered setup itself is confirmed as part of how the current system penalizes free-spending teams more than others.
That gap matters for teams like the Yankees, who have been aggressive spenders in recent years and could face a harsher penalty than a smaller-market club chasing the same free agent.
Which Players Are True Qualifying Offer Candidates This Winter?
Few free agents this offseason are considered obvious qualifying offer recipients. Baltimore Orioles starter Trevor Rogers, 28, stands out as one of the rare no-doubt candidates, according to Bleacher Report. Rogers posted a 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 169.2 innings this season, and his numbers over the last two years with Baltimore show a 3.16 ERA across 48 starts, per MLB.com.
Speaking after his final start of the season on Sept. 25, Rogers said he is ready to test the open market. “It’s going to be fun talking through that with teams,” Rogers said. “I’m looking forward to it,” according to MLB.com.
New York Yankees reliever David Bednar, 31, is described by Bleacher Report as the team’s most impactful potential departure after a season in which he recorded 64 games, 35 saves, a 2.47 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 ratio. Sports Illustrated notes Bednar, who will turn 32 as a free agent, has posted a 2.39 ERA in 86 regular-season appearances since the Yankees acquired him at the 2025 trade deadline, plus a 1.00 ERA in eight playoff outings.
Tampa Bay Rays starter Nick Martinez, 36, is ranked as his team’s top free agent based on this year’s production, going 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 109 strikeouts in 180.0 innings, according to Bleacher Report. Toronto Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber, 31, is also listed among the market’s potential free agents.
How Does The Qualifying Offer Connect To Playoff Exits?
The Yankees’ offseason decisions carry extra weight after Tampa Bay swept them in the American League Division Series, ending New York’s season, per Sports Illustrated. Along with Bednar, Yankees right-hander Paul Blackburn will also enter free agency after posting a 1.69 ERA in 62 games this season.
The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres face similar free agent crossroads after early exits. Atlanta lost 3-1 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, while San Diego fell 3-1 to the Milwaukee Brewers in the same round, according to Sports Illustrated. Those results push all three franchises into offseason roster decisions shaped partly by qualifying offer calculations for their own departing players.
Last offseason, the Yankees saw how the qualifying offer can swing both ways. New York extended one to Trent Grisham, who accepted and remained with the club, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. was expected to face his own qualifying offer discussion as he approached free agency, per the Post.
What’s Next For Free Agency
Teams cannot begin extending qualifying offers until five days after the World Series concludes, with players getting a 10-day window to decide. Rogers, Bednar, Martinez and Bieber headline a free agent class where the draft-pick compensation tied to the $23.1 million qualifying offer will factor into how aggressively teams pursue them once the offers and rejections play out this fall.
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