| Missouri State (7-5) at Arkansas State (6-6) | |||
| Game Details: Thursday, December 18, 7 p.m. EST | |||
| Location: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, TX | |||
| Where to Watch: ESPN2 |
Matchup
The Xbox Bowl brings a fascinating clash of styles and storylines to Frisco, Texas, as the Missouri State Bears face off against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. While the Red Wolves are making their third consecutive bowl appearance, the Bears are looking to cap off a historic debut season at the FBS level with a signature win. Missouri State, fresh off a 7-5 campaign in its first year in Conference USA, is hoping to become just one of three teams ever to win a bowl game in their first year after transitioning from the FCS.
Arkansas State arrives in Frisco battle-tested after a rollercoaster season that saw them start 1-4 before rallying to become the only team in the nation to reach bowl eligibility after such a start. Their resilience was on full display down the stretch, winning three consecutive road games for the first time since 2015.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | +1.5 | -105 | Over 54.5 |
| Arkansas State | -1.5 | -114 | Under 54.5 |
**Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports **
Tale of The Tape
| Missouri State | Team Stats – Avg Per Game | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 25.4 | Points Per Game | 24.4 |
| 273.9 | Passing Yards Per Game | 257.2 |
| 117.9 | Rushing Yards Per Game | 127.5 |
| 28.3 | Opponents Points Per Game Allowed | 27.3 |
| 224.6 | Opponents Pass Yards Allowed | 236.3 |
| 160.2 | Opponents Rush Yards Allowed | 179.7 |
Statistics from various online sources, courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports
Key Details
Missouri State
Missouri State’s transition to the FBS has been nothing short of impressive. Led by quarterback Jacob Clark, the Bears have established a potent passing attack that could exploit Arkansas State’s defensive weaknesses. Clark threw for 2,895 yards and led his conference with 24 touchdown passes, helping the Bears notch impressive victories, including a win over preseason favorite Liberty. His ability to find the end zone—and limit mistakes with an efficient passing game—will be crucial as the Bears look to secure their first-ever FBS bowl victory.
The Bears aren’t just one-dimensional, though. Running back Shomari Lawrence brings versatility to the backfield, racking up 1,065 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns this season. Expect Missouri State to aggressively target the Red Wolves’ secondary. If Clark can continue his efficient play and Lawrence can find space, the Bears have a strong chance to make history in their FBS debut season.
Arkansas State
Arkansas State’s path to the postseason was anything but conventional. After a tough start, they found their rhythm late in the year, particularly on the road. While their offense hasn’t been the most explosive unit in the Sun Belt, quarterback Jaylen Raynor still managed to lead the conference with 3,073 passing yards. He’s got a reliable target in Corey Rucker, who etched his name in the record books this season by becoming the Sun Belt’s all-time leader in receiving yards with 3,903 career yards.
Defensively, the Red Wolves rely on disruption up front. The pass-rushing duo of Demarcus Hendricks and Eathan Hassler has been a nightmare for opposing offensive lines, combining for 22 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. However, their secondary has struggled mightily, ranking 131st in defensive success rate on dropbacks. This vulnerability could be a major factor against a Missouri State team that loves to air it out. The Red Wolves will need their defensive front to create pressure early and often to protect a back end that has given up big plays throughout the year.
Prediction
If you start 1-4 and still make a bowl game, you must have treated every game as a bowl game. Arkansas State has played for this moment, and will shine.
Final Pick
Arkansas State +1.5
Over 54.5
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