Luke Paul Duke pledge could create a big 5-guard logjam

“I want to get to the NBA and be a lottery pick, and I trust in their player development to get me there,” Luke Paul said after committing to Duke on Thursday, Oct. 1, according to Sports Illustrated. The Luke Paul Duke pledge gives Jon Scheyer a 6-foot-6 Australian point guard for 2027-28, and it raises a fair question about how crowded the Blue Devils’ backcourt could get.

Paul is the second commitment in Duke’s 2027 class, joining forward Kager Knueppel, the younger brother of Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel, FOX Sports reported. FOX Sports described Paul as a potential lottery pick in the 2028 NBA Draft.

A Perth guard who has played against pros

The 17-year-old Perth native plays for the Cairns Taipans through the NBL’s Next Stars program, which lets top prospects spend a season in Australia’s pro league. When he signed with Next Stars, the program said he was the youngest athlete ever to join it, at 16 years, 10 months and 29 days old.

Paul’s summer raised his profile. He averaged 15.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists at the FIBA U17 World Cup in Turkey while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 55.6 percent from 3-point range, according to SI. He made the All-Tournament Team and helped Australia win bronze.

The Next Stars route has produced high draft picks before. LaMelo Ball (Illawarra Hawks), Josh Giddey (Adelaide 36ers) and Alex Sarr (Perth Wildcats) each spent a pre-draft season in the NBL, and all three went in the top six of their drafts. Paul is taking a different path by adding a college stop, which makes the Luke Paul Duke decision unusual for a Next Stars player. It also gives Duke a guard who will arrive with a full season of pro minutes against grown men, an edge most freshmen do not have.

Why the Luke Paul Duke fit starts with Boumtje Boumtje

Paul pointed to a future teammate as part of the draw. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the MVP of that same U17 World Cup per FOX Sports, is also headed to Duke, and Paul told SI he is excited about running pick-and-roll with him.

“Winning a national championship at Duke is the ultimate goal for me,” Paul said.

That goal has eluded Scheyer so far. Duke reached the Elite Eight last March before UConn ended its season on Braylon Mullins’ late 3-pointer.

The 5-in-5 rule could stack Duke’s guard room

Here is where the Luke Paul Duke commitment gets complicated. Under the NCAA’s new age-based “5-in-5” eligibility model, Duke’s current guards, Caleb Foster, John Blackwell, Cayden Boozer and Deron Rippey Jr., could all return for 2027-28, SI noted.

If they all do, Paul would arrive as the fifth guard competing for ball-handling minutes. In practice, that rarely happens. Players weigh the NBA draft, the transfer portal and their projected roles every spring, and a highly ranked incoming point guard tends to shape those decisions.

For Scheyer, the problem is a good one. Duke keeps attracting guards with NBA ambitions, and the challenge is fitting them onto one roster without losing the players he has already developed.

What Duke’s 2027 class looks like now

With Paul and Knueppel committed, Duke has two pieces of its 2027 class in place more than a year before they can enroll. How many of the current guards stay through 2027-28 will decide whether the Luke Paul Duke era starts with a position battle or a clear path to minutes.

Follow more recruiting news in our men’s college basketball section, and read why Cooper Flagg edged Kon Knueppel for NBA Rookie of the Year.