Brewers vs Padres: The Milwaukee Brewers can close out the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night when the NLDS shifts back to Petco Park for Game 3, with Milwaukee holding a 2-0 series lead. The Padres are out of margin for error after dropping two straight one-run games to the Brewers.
Game 3 Information
- Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California
- TV: FS1
- Series: NLDS Game 3, Milwaukee leads 2-0
What Happened In Game 2?
Milwaukee stole Game 2 in brutal fashion for San Diego, winning 4-3 after Jackson Chourio delivered a bases-loaded single off closer Mason Miller with two outs in the ninth inning, according to USA Today. Miller threw 40 pitches, his most since 2023, and touched 103.5 mph on his fastball. Chourio’s hit came off a 101.3 mph pitch and marked just the third postseason walk-off win in Brewers history, per USA Today.
San Diego’s offense struggled for most of the night. The Padres did not record a baserunner against Brewers starter Logan Henderson until the fifth inning and committed three errors, matching a season high, per ESPN. Milwaukee sits one win from a second straight NL Championship Series appearance.
Who Starts Game 3 For Each Team?
Dustin May is projected to start for the Brewers, while Nick Pivetta is the Padres’ probable starter with a 2.70 ERA. Both arms pitch with their season on the line: Milwaukee seeking to clinch, San Diego fighting for survival. Milwaukee’s pitching staff held opponents to a .221 batting average in the regular season, with Jacob Misiorowski posting a 1.80 ERA and Logan Henderson going 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The Padres’ Michael King is 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA in the regular season but has been unhittable this October, sitting at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA over seven innings.
San Diego’s Offensive Struggles In Brewers Vs Padres Series
The Padres enter Game 3 having scored just five runs across the first two games despite rolling into the postseason with 20 wins in their last 23 games, per the Associated Press. San Diego posted an .815 OPS in September and October, the best mark in baseball over that stretch. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI in the regular season, while Manny Machado led the team with 30 homers. Jackson Merrill added 26 home runs and 87 RBI.
None of that production has shown up yet in this series. Xander Bogaerts is 12 for 31 with two doubles and two homers over his last 10 games, a sign his bat is warm even as the team’s overall output has stalled. San Diego’s pitching staff allowed a .242 average during the regular season.
Milwaukee’s Lineup Keeps Rolling
Jackson Chourio has been Milwaukee’s October engine, hitting 12 for 33 with three home runs over his last 10 games and finishing the regular season with a team-best .291 average. Brice Turang contributed 37 doubles, three triples and 21 home runs, while Joey Ortiz hit .270 with nine homers and 47 RBI. Milwaukee collected 1,422 hits in the regular season, the most in MLB.
Game 3 By The Numbers
- Batting Average: Padres .265, Brewers .190
- Runs per game: Padres 4.3, Brewers 3.5
- Home runs: Padres 4, Brewers 2
- Team ERA: Padres 1.82, Brewers 1.50
- WHIP: Padres 1.01, Brewers 1.28
- Strikeouts per nine: Padres 8.6, Brewers 8.0
- Opponent OPS allowed: Padres .490, Brewers .537
- Fielding Percentage (series): Padres .971, Brewers .958
The Key Matchup
San Diego’s power bats against Milwaukee’s contact-limiting pitching staff will decide whether this series reaches a fourth game. The Padres’ .815 OPS since September ranked best in baseball, yet Milwaukee’s staff held opponents to a .221 average across the regular season and has only tightened in October, allowing a .490 OPS through two games. If Tatis Jr., Machado and Merrill can generate runs early against May, San Diego keeps its season alive. If Milwaukee’s pitching continues to limit hard contact the way it has through two games, the Padres face elimination.
Jackson Chourio
Chourio has been Milwaukee’s biggest difference-maker in October, riding a .291 regular-season average into a red-hot stretch that includes his series-defining walk-off hit in Game 2.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
San Diego’s leadoff spark needs to find his timing fast. Tatis hit .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI in the regular season, but the Padres need that production now, not in the offseason.
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta takes the ball with San Diego facing elimination, tasked with keeping Milwaukee’s lineup off the board long enough for the Padres’ bats to wake up.
What To Watch
Milwaukee can punch its ticket to a second straight NL Championship Series appearance with a win, while San Diego is simply trying to stay alive after consecutive one-run losses at home. The Padres’ bullpen usage, after Mason Miller’s heavy workload in Game 2, could factor heavily if Game 3 turns into another close finish. A Milwaukee win ends the series; a Padres win forces a Game 4 and keeps their championship hopes breathing for at least one more night.
Reporting from ESPN, The Associated Press, FOX Sports and USA Today contributed to this story. Official statistics: ESPN (official league data).
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