Oklahoma City Thunder Versus San Antonio Spurs: Western Conference Finals Preview

The NBA playoff field is now down to just four teams, with the Western Conference Finals set to tip off later tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, in the most anticipated playoff matchup in recent memory. Let’s examine each team’s path to victory in this series, as well as predict who will represent the West in the NBA Finals this season.

Youth and Hunger Versus Championship Pedigree and Experience

In what has been a great season overall for one of the youngest teams in the league, the San Antonio Spurs roll into this conference finals series after defeating a tough Minnesota Timberwolves in 6 games in the second round. That series did quite a bit in showcasing how championship-ready this youthful Spurs team is, despite the lack of playoff experience prior to this year.

While that inexperience has rarely ever reared its ugly head during these playoffs, the Spurs will face their toughest test yet against the reigning NBA champion Thunder. Oklahoma City has showcased why they’re a potential dynasty in the making so far this postseason, as they enter the conference finals with an undefeated record, a mark that few teams in NBA history has achieved. In terms of an experience advantage, the Thunder hold a decisive edge here.

Battle of the Top Tier Defenses

If you’re a fan of defense in the NBA, then this series will more than satiate your appetite, as both the Spurs and Thunder boasted the two best defenses in the NBA this past season. That means expect to see some rather low-scoring games, as both teams have prided themselves on being tough and physical on the defensive end all season long and have continued showcasing that defensive identity throughout this postseason.

While both teams are similar in their defensive personnel, at least as it pertains to the versatility of their individual defenders, each team’s overall defensive focus differs from one another. For the Thunder, their defense is primarily focused on closing off passing lanes and generating turnovers to feed directly into their offense via points off of turnovers. While the Spurs use their physical ball pressuring defense to funnel offensive players towards the rim, where Victor Wembanyama is positioned to send shots back.

While the Thunder offer their own take on rim protection, as they utilize a two-big lineup with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein to seal off the paint, the Spurs simply hold an equal or even slight advantage there by the mere presence of Wembanyama. The biggest key to victory for each team will come down to which squad controls the paint on defense, as both offenses are centered around attacking the rim relentlessly.

The Battle of the MVP Finalists

Although the role players and secondary stars that each team possesses will play a key factor in who wins the series, the duel between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama will be the ultimate deciding factor in the series. Each player has had wildly different performances so far, with SGA having yet to dominate a playoff series like he usually does, and Wembanyama setting playoff records left and right during his postseason run.

The main reason for the different playoff performances comes down to the defensive game plan that has been thrown at each player. SGA has faced the largest number of double teams by any player in the playoffs, as he’s been double-teamed on 57% of the Thunder’s offensive possessions this postseason. Meanwhile, for Wembanyama, his size and offensive versatility has rendered a majority of defensive coverages against him null and void.

The Thunder’s likelihood of slowing down Wembanyama on offense is not particularly high, which means SGA will have to put forward his best series of the playoffs so far. The problem for the Thunder in that regard is that the Los Angeles Lakers already provided the recipe for slowing SGA down during their second-round series. That recipe was to play a 2-3 zone defense and force the ball out of SGA’s hand every chance they got in a half-court defensive set.

The reason that defensive approach ultimately failed for the Lakers was due in large part to their lackluster defensive personnel and inconsistent defensive effort. That won’t be the case when it comes to the Spurs, which begs the question of whether San Antonio will utilize a similar defensive approach. If the Spurs can slow down SGA while keeping the Thunder’s other players in check, their odds of winning are very high.

Prediction: Spurs Take Down Thunder in 7 Games to Reach the NBA Finals

Although the Spurs outright owned the Thunder during the regular season, as they won the regular season series 4-1, the postseason series between these teams will be a classic close playoff series. The main reason the Spurs will take the Western Conference crown this season is due to the much-improved three-point shooting that San Antonio has showcased in the second half of the season.

The Spurs currently boast the 3rd-best team three-point percentage since the All-Star break, and are currently number two in the same department among all playoff teams. While the Thunder were the better three-point shooting team overall during the regular season, they don’t have the same amount of shooters scattered across their roster compared to the Spurs. Although both teams are evenly matched in the majority of areas, the Spurs will once again prove why they are the Thunder’s kryptonite in what will be another classic between these two playoff rivals.

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