NBA Playoffs Second Round Game 3 Preview: San Antonio Spurs Versus Minnesota Timberwolves

The first two games of the second round series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs came to a close on Wednesday night, with the Spurs bouncing back in a big way to tie the series 1-1 heading into Friday. Let’s examine the ways each team can take a 2-1 series lead tonight in Minneapolis, as well as predict which team comes away with the victory.

Spurs Must Continue Playing Fast to Stretch Timberwolves Defense

One of the biggest reasons the Spurs were able to pounce on the Timberwolves early to cruise to a dominant win in game two was because of the much-improved pace the Spurs operated at on offense. This was evident in the box score of that game, where the Spurs outscored the Timberwolves 29-5 in fast break points, a minor but significant improvement over the 27 fast break points scored by San Antonio in game one.

The reason for why that slight improvement is so significant stems from the Spurs’ ability to generate more fast break opportunities, either off turnovers or by running out on the break off a made or missed basket on defense. The Timberwolves only committed 10 turnovers in their game one win, whereas they committed a playoff high 22 turnovers in their game two loss.

In order for the Timberwolves to prevent the series momentum from heavily swinging in San Antonio’s favor, their transition defense and more disciplined ball handling, combined with passing on offense, must return to their form from game one. Minnesota has thrived when they shrink the court and force teams to beat them in the half-court, and that approach has to be at the forefront of head coach Chris Finch’s mind when making adjustments for tonight’s game.

Anthony Edwards Must Find a Rhythm Early on Offense

Although Edwards 4th quarter heroics served as the catalyst for the Timberwolves’ win in game one, Minnesota will need Edwards offensive brilliance to show up a bit earlier in the game from this point on in the series. Edwards had one of the worst outings of his playoff career in game two, as he finished with just 12 points on 5 for 13 shooting from the floor.

While some of the struggles for Edwards on offense in the series can be attributed to the two knee injuries the Timberwolves All-Star is currently battling through, a hot start scoring-wise would undoubtedly jumpstart a struggling Minnesota offense, especially on home turf. Great players always find a way to overcome adversity to advance in the playoffs, and if the Timberwolves want to regain control of the series, the play of Edwards must see a noticeable improvement from this point onwards.

Timberwolves Foul Issues Must Come to an End

Although the physicality that the Timberwolves play with on defense is certainly something to be admired, that physicality has also served as a detriment at times this postseason, given Minnesota’s penchant for committing numerous fouls on that end of the court. The biggest problem with the fouls that Minnesota picks up on defense, and that is how unnecessary a fair amount of them end up being.

There’s a sizable amount of difference between being physical, while also being disciplined on defense, and the Timberwolves have to figure out a way to find the sweet spot in that area. While fouls severely harm the ability of Minnesota’s defenders to play up to their standard on defense, it also harms their offense more so in that regard. This is especially true for Timberwolves star wing Jaden McDaniels, who has yet to make his mark on offense in this series due to foul trouble through the first two games.

McDaniels is currently averaging 14 points per game in just 28 minutes per game this series, a far cry from his 18 points per game and 36 minutes per game against the Nuggets in the previous series. If the Timberwolves want to see an uptick in performance on both sides of the ball, there must be an uptick in defensive discipline, particularly from McDaniels, who has been the x-factor for the Timberwolves in this year’s playoffs.

Prediction: Spurs Take Game Three on the Road

While the adjustments that need to be made for Minnesota will come through one way or another on Friday night, the Spurs’ formula for winning is simply an easier thing to attain, at least for this game. Much of that is due to both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox showcasing their ability at bouncing back following bad performances, which was evident in the Spurs game two victory.

While the Timberwolves possess a pathway to victory, their margin for error is at exactly zero if both Wembanyama and Fox can be a force on offense. Expect a close but decisive victory for the Spurs in game three tonight.

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