A popular talking point in today’s college sports landscape is the effect of NIL on the transfer portal. It’s no secret that student-athletes have been changing schools now more than ever, often in pursuit of larger financial incentives.
This recent development is nowhere more apparent than the starting lineups in the men’s Final Four, which kicks off Saturday. NC State and Alabama have only one player between them that started at their current school. While Purdue and UConn each have multiple homegrown players in the lineup, they still rely on key contributors from transfers. Will the college game ever consistently see four-year program players again?
NIL will most likely affect the transfer portal forever
Prominent players have been entering the transfer portal left and right in both men’s and women’s college basketball. Bronny James, Hailey Van Lith, and Zed Key are three of the most recent examples. While Key spent multiple years at Ohio State, James and Van Lith each spent just one year at USC and LSU, respectively.
Statistics show that the NIL and transfer boom disproportionately affect non-power conferences, as they don’t have the same level of resources to attract and maintain top players.
Last year, college basketball analyst Evan Miyakawa ranked each conference by how many players were left in the portal. The highest Power conference is the Big East, ranking just 10th on the list.
I was curious to see which conferences are most affected by transfers leaving, so I ranked every conference by the percentage of players who have entered their names in the portal? pic.twitter.com/dYRHuE7gvJ
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) April 13, 2023
“According to Miyakawa’s research, every conference in America lost at least 15% of its players to the transfer portal, with six conferences seeing over 30% of their players hit the portal,” via Kevin Miller of Garnet and Cocky. “Revealing something most fans have already observed, this study shows just how different the college game looks from year to year with the new rules.”
Most likely, smaller conferences will no longer be able to keep breakout players for multiple years. The players have little reason to stay if they’re getting better offers from bigger universities, where they’d be able to showcase their talents on a bigger stage.
Even Smaller Power 5 Schools are Affected By Transfer Portal
While 11-seeded NC State is a fun Cinderella story this season, it’s concerning that none of their starting five began their collegiate journey with the Wolfpack. It’s not a sustainable model of success for programs to have completely new rosters every season. Team chemistry and consistency are paramount, and teams that don’t have a rich history of winning may have a hard time continually attracting top talent.
Even Alabama, who has been on a hot streak since Nate Oats took over, still has sports only one homegrown starter. While the school has traditionally been more known for football, the men’s hoops team has now qualified for four consecutive NCAA Tournaments. How much more winning will they have to do until they’re able to maintain the same core players for multiple seasons?
Transfer Portal: General Outlook
While it’s good that college athletes are finally able to profit from their talents, it does create a conundrum for the sport. If this “wild west” transfer portal trend continues, there may not be a way for programs to maintain any type of continuity.
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Joshua is a diehard Yankees, Jets, Knicks, Rutgers, and Tottenham Hotspur fan. He started his journalism career as the Sports Editor for the Rutgers University newspaper. When he’s not watching a game or writing about one, you can find him in an art-house movie theater or writing a screenplay.
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