Which of the Remaining 8 Will Win Martinsville?

Fans, drivers, and teams are all anxious and excited heading into Martinsville due to the expected short-track bumping and banging, plus, of course, the final 4. The last spot to contend for the title is up for grabs, but who’s the most likely to get it? That’s what I found out.

Chase Elliott

NASCAR’s most popular driver has a history of winning and being great at the paper clip. Most famously in 2017, when he was two turns away from his 1st career win, only for Hamlin to decide he wanted his turn at being the sport’s most hated driver. But with Virginia’s own being locked into the final four already, he might play nicer if the same chance comes. But of course, he’s also won at Martinsville before. He earned a clutch win in 2020, which set him up for his only cup title so far.

He also won in the truck series here in 2017. Out of all recent drivers, Chase Elliott has the 5th-best average finish of them all, with an 11.7 and 8 top fives plus 13 top tens in 20 starts there. He’s even the 4th-best among all full-time drivers over the past seven races, with an 8.0 average finish. So, he’s got great odds to win Martinsville.

Kyle Larson

The greatest race car driver in the world is also 1 of the best drivers at Martinsville. Having the 2nd-best average finish of all current drivers in the last seven races here, with a 5.4 average finish. He’s also gotten wins here before. With a Cup win in 2023, he showed he can get it done here. His 15.5 average finish here puts him 9th of all current drivers as well. And most importantly, Larson’s come up clutch before.

Like in 2018, with his underrated crazy last-lap pass to make the round of 12 in 2018. Then, when he won at the Roval in 2024 to make the Round of 8 and, of course, won at the season finale in 2021 to clinch his only Cup Series title. So why can’t he clutch up at Martinsville?

Ryan Blaney

Now, for the man who is the best driver on average in the last seven races at Martinsville, with an insane 4.6 finish. But even more impressively, among all active drivers, he’s also earned the highest average finish at 8.5. Which, for the record, is a better average finish than the likes of Denny Hamlin (8.5 vs 9.8), Jimmie Johnson (8.5 vs 9.9), and his teammate Joey Logano (8.5 vs 10.7). And of course, he has won at Martinsville. Winning this exact race in both 2023 and 2024 to get in the final round in both years. Which, of course, set him up for his 2023 title.

Denny Hamlin

While he’s already locked himself into the final round with his last win, you’d be lying to yourself if you think he wouldn’t be giving it his all for 1 of his hometown tracks. And with that in mind, there’s no way you can count Hamlin out at Martinsville. His average finish speaks for itself, with a career average of 9.8 in 39 races, confirming his status as an all-time great short-track driver.

With a total of 6 career wins here, including earlier this year in the same race, he was against the whole world and won. But not including that 2017 race mentioned above, where he came across the line backwards and didn’t even finish top 5. He was close, though, being close being something he’s very familiar with. But not something he’s planning on being this week at Martinsville.

Joey Logano

Lastly, the other Penske champion also has a much rockier, yet still winning, relationship with Martinsville. His average finish puts him 3rd among all active drivers at 10.7, with his only Cup Series win coming in 2018, when his clutch bump-and-run on the last lap set him up to win the war vs.

MTJ and get his 1st career title over the much more deserving Harvick and Kyle Busch. His 5.6 average finish in the last seven races also puts him 3rd among all active drivers. And if he isn’t winning, you will talk about him, as his cheating controversy from the previous year and his fights against the likes of Hamlin and Kenseth show. He always brings excitement to the paper clip. Thanks a bunch for reading!