Top 5 Cup Drivers Most Likely To Win At Vegas
This weekend, the NASCAR circus heads to Vegas to risk it all to make it into the final four. All of the eight remaining drivers will make all kinds of gambles to put themselves in the best spot to make the final four. But everyone else is in it to win it, so who will?
No. 5 Alex Bowman
Hendrick’s forgotten man, especially heading into Vegas after being knocked out in round 1 of the playoffs. And with him not earning a top 10 in the last three races, I am sure to some this pick seems crazy. But Bowman is great at Vegas, like, really great. In the last six races combined, he has the fifth-best average finish of all drivers and the fourth-best of all active full-time drivers. He is 12th among active drivers, including having a win at Vegas in 2022, beating hometown hero Kyle Busch.
No. 4 William Byron!
Continuing with the Hendrick drivers, this driver is still in the playoffs, and a win here would mean a chance at getting that Cup Series title. Luckily for him, this is a very kind round to him, with Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville all being some of his best tracks. Vegas has been especially kind to Byron. In all races since February 2022, he’s had the second-best average finish of all drivers with a 6.3, and is the eighth-best of all recent drivers at Vegas with a 13.6 average finish overall.
No. 3 Kyle Larson!
Wrapping up the Hendrick started list. You really can’t make this list without mentioning “Yung Money,” as his history on mile and a half’s, let alone Vegas, really speaks for itself. Of all the recent drivers in the sport, he’s the best, averaging a 9.4 finish in 18 races there and earning three wins in the process. In terms of recent races, he’s still impressive as well. His average finish is 8.7 since February 2022, and with him having the most wins of any driver in the Next Gen era (16), he should always be at least a dark horse.
No. 2 Joey Logano!
This has been Logano’s house since the opening race started being sponsored by Pennzoil. He’s won here the most out of all active drivers, with four total wins he can claim as his own. He has earned an all-time average finish of 9.8 in 24 races, which is otherworldly. Having 14 top 10s in those 24 races, along with eight top fives.
In his last seven races, he’s gotten two of his Vegas victories and has the seventh-best average finish of all drivers in a similar timespan with 12.6. Plus, he’s in the round of 8 and has an annoying habit of winning titles he doesn’t deserve. This gives him a road map to do exactly that.
No. 1 Ross Chastain!
Not the Vegas favorite, but my Vegas favorite, there’s a great reason to think Ross Chastain can pull it off in the desert! Vegas is where he had his breakout performance, leading the most laps in the first race here in 2022 and finishing in the top 5. And despite having no wins here, he does have the best average finish of all drivers in the past seven races, with an insane 5.4 average finish. It makes victory for him in Vegas seem inevitable. Plus, he’s played playoff spoiler before in 2024 at Kansas, a similar track. So why not do it two years in a row?
