Minnesota Vikings JJ McCarthy’s QBR Hits Historic Low After Week 12 Loss To Green Bay
Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy’s transition to the NFL has been anything but smooth. Through his first six starts, the 10th overall pick has put up numbers that are not just concerning for the Vikings’ faithful, but are also trending toward historically poor territory.
Minnesota Vikings JJ McCarthy QBR
Currently, McCarthy sits at the bottom of the league’s quarterback rankings with a QBR of 24.8. His performance has culminated in a Total QBR that is the lowest for a qualifying starting quarterback since Josh Rosen’s infamous 2019 season. Here are the quarterbacks that finished with the lowest QBR in the season since 2019.
- 2020: New York Jets Sam Darnold – 32.9
- 2021: Chicago Bears Justin Fields – 31.4
- 2022: LA Rams Baker Mayfield – 26.3
- 2023: New York Jets Zach Wilson – 31.3
- 2024: Tennessee Titans Will Levis – 25.2
Additionally, Cleveland Browns QB DeShone Kizer, who famously went 0-15 in the 2017 season, posted a QBR of 32.4. While this stat doesn’t tell the full story, this is the not the company the Minnesota Vikings QB wants to be keeping.
This places him in the company of some of the most challenging rookie seasons in recent memory. While a small sample size of only six starts offers some context, the underlying statistics paint a troubling picture for the young signal-caller.
A Deeper Dive into the Struggles
The issues for McCarthy extend beyond a single metric. Analytically, his performance has been alarming across the board. According to Sports Info Solutions, McCarthy’s passing Total Points per play ranks 33rd out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks, placing him at a replacement level. His on-target throw rate is also a significant concern, ranking as the worst in the NFL when adjusted for factors like throw depth.
Two of the most telling statistics are his sack rate and interception rate. He currently possesses the highest sack rate in the league at 11% and the second-highest interception rate at 6%. This combination of taking sacks and turning the ball over has severely limited the Vikings’ offense and put immense pressure on the defense. Even on plays where he isn’t pressured, the results have been underwhelming.
Context and Challenges
It is important to note the context surrounding McCarthy’s difficult start. He is working with a head coach, Kevin O’Connell, who is known for his offensive mind, and he has one of the league’s top receiving trios in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor. However, even with these advantages, the offense has failed to find a rhythm.
The offensive line has been inconsistent, and McCarthy himself has appeared overwhelmed at times. He has been particularly ineffective under pressure, turning pass-rush pressure into sacks at one of the highest rates in the league. His Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) when pressured is the second-worst among his peers.
Final Thoughts
While it is far too early to make a definitive judgment on his career, McCarthy’s initial stretch has been statistically alarming. The Vikings invested heavily in the former Michigan quarterback, and while patience is a virtue with any rookie, the team will need to see significant improvement quickly to calm the growing concerns about the future of their offense. For now, all fans can do is hope this historic low is a starting point for growth, not a sign of things to come.
