Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, Jeff Okudah, Blake Cashman

Are The Minnesota Vikings Legitimate Contenders?

Matt Brown

We can no longer ignore the Minnesota Vikings. After the hot start, we all said the same thing. “This isn’t sustainable.” “The old Sam Darnold will come back at some point.” “Teams will figure out this defense.” While we’ve seen signs of some of these statements coming true, the Vikings keep winning. They sit at 9-2, on a fast track to a playoff spot. We can no longer ignore them in the NFC. However, we’ve also seen teams have a great regular season only to be exposed in the playoffs. Are the Vikings legitimate contenders?

Minnesota Vikings Season In Review

The Minnesota Vikings started out the season 5-0 with impressive wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers. While the Giants and Jets were thrown in there as well, it was not an easy schedule by any means. Furthermore, we’ve seen wild things happen in the NFL this season. Any team can beat anyone on any week. The team then dropped two straight, and the doubters started to get loud. However, the losses were not bad by any means.

One was a two-point loss to Detroit on the road, which is widely considered the best team in the NFL. The other was against the Rams on a Thursday night. They had a game-winning drive before it was ended on the facemask no-call. Since the 10-day mini-bye, the Minnesota Vikings have won four straight, beating up the rest of the AFC South and the Chicago Bears. NFL.com gives the team a 98% chance to make the postseason. If they and the Lions keep winning, the week 18 matchup could be very important. The record is there, but what do the statistics say?

The Good

The bread and butter of the Minnesota Vikings is their defense. They rank fifth in the league in scoring defense, only giving up 17.9 points per game. The defense travels well as that number only jumps to 18.4 on the road. Minnesota has one of the best run defenses in the league. In the following categories, the Vikings are top five in the league.

  • Yards per rush 3.6 (2nd)
  • Rush yards per game 74.7 (1st)
  • Opponent rush touchdowns per game 0.5 (2nd)
  • Opponent fourth down percentage 36.36% (1st)

They are forcing opponents to pass the ball. While it is a passing league, we’ve seen the benefit of a solid run game in some of the best teams in the NFL. Philadelphia’s offense is a new level of danger with Saquon Barkley. The Packers have an 8-3 record, thanks to Josh Jacobs’s play. Detroit’s combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is making headlines. Minnesota takes that away and makes an offense one-dimensional.

Not Just The Defense

Let’s not forget about the offense! The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the better offenses in the league. They average 24.9 points per game, which is good for ninth place in the league. Behind elite playmakers, they also crack the top ten in yards per game (351.1). If we dig deeper into the stats, there are even more numbers to like about the offense.

  • 3rd down conversion percentage 40.31%: This is good for 12th in the league. Being an above-average team on third down is a good place to be.
  • Completion percentage 67.88%: They are currently ninth in the league. Darnold is completing a high percentage of his passes.
  • Yards per pass 8.4: This is third in the league. The completions are not all short and easy ones. Darnold and the offense are pushing the ball down the field.
  • Passing yards per game 234.0: Again, the Minnesota Vikings crack the top ten. It helps to have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Overall, this is an above-average offense. They aren’t necessarily elite at something but are very good at everything. Even in rush yards per game, they rank 15th with 115.1.

Coaching

When talking about the Minnesota Vikings, we have to talk about the coaching staff. On a week-to-week basis, we see a lot of bad coaching in the NFL. It makes it that much more obvious when a team is succeeding because of their coaching. The players are playing well, but the reason the Vikings are 9-2 is the coaching staff. Kevin O’Connell has made Sam Darnold into a serviceable NFL quarterback. Sure, he has his faults (we’ll get to that shortly), but overall, Darnold has made plays when he needs to.

Brian Flores has been great as the defensive coordinator. I often evaluate coaches based on their ability to do more with less. Flores doesn’t have a lockdown corner or elite linebackers. He makes it work. He makes opponents uncomfortable and forces them into mistakes. No matter how you feel about any roster, good coaching covers up a lot of warts.

The Bad

It’s not all good for the Minnesota Vikings. There are some glaring flaws that have to be pointed out. Let’s start with some easy ones. Darnold doesn’t always take care of the ball well. He has thrown ten interceptions this year. Only Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, and Geno Smith have thrown more. Because of the interceptions, they rank near the bottom of the league in turnover rate.

Furthermore, the offensive line has struggled in pass protection, giving up sacks at an 8.84% rate, which is 25th in the league. Interceptions and sacks are killers for an offense. So far, it hasn’t come back to burn the Minnesota Vikings too badly, but once the postseason rolls around, a crucial interception can be the difference between moving on and going home.

The Pass Defense

The stats on the Minnesota Vikings pass defense are tricky to interpret. Let’s start with the raw numbers. Minnesota gives up 242.5 pass yards per game which is 28th in the league. Their secondary is a group of aging veterans and rising young players. They seem susceptible to the pass but their run defense plays a role. Because they are so good against the run, teams pass more. More passes means more opportunities to gain yards against this defense. Even the best defenses give up yards.

The strength of the defense is in their ability to force pressure and turnovers. If the rush doesn’t get home, the secondary has issues locking down receivers. Again, it’s hard to diagnose this issue as teams are simply choosing to pass more. Still, against a team with an elite group of wide receivers, the Vikings could have issues if the pass rush doesn’t get home.

Outlook

Barring a colossal collapse, the Minnesota Vikings will be in the postseason. They have some good games coming up to test their viability in the playoffs. The next two weeks are home games against the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons. Both of these teams are in the playoff hunt and have played well at times this season. After a Monday night date with the Bears, the Vikings end their season at Seattle, vs. Green Bay, and at Detroit. That will be a good test heading into the playoffs.

At this point, whether or not you believe in the Minnesota Vikings, they are going to be players in the NFC playoffs. How deep they go could make the offseason difficult for the team. Do they re-sign Darnold even though JJ McCarthy will be back? Does the team look to open a championship window with win-now moves? This team has been one of the huge surprises of the NFL season, and they are looking to prove the doubters wrong over the next two months.

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