Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 15 Preview: Kansas City Fighting for Its Playoff Life

The Kansas City Chiefs for years, as had the road to the Super Bowl go through Arrowhead Stadium, but entering Week 15 with a 6-7 record, the reigning AFC champions are simply trying to find a way onto the map.

Sunday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers isn’t just a divisional rivalry game; it is a battle for survival in a jam-packed AFC playoff race. The math is simple but brutal for Kansas City: lose, and the season is effectively over.

Here is everything you need to know heading into this critical AFC West showdown.

The Stakes: Survival vs. Seeding

The narrative surrounding the Chiefs has shifted dramatically. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, a duo that has defined NFL dominance for the better part of a decade, are facing the very real possibility of missing the postseason entirely.

According to current metrics, Kansas City’s playoff chances are hovering around 10%. A loss on Sunday, combined with unfavorable results elsewhere in the league, could see them eliminated from contention by Monday night. As Mahomes said this week, “We are in unprecedented territory… It hasn’t always been pretty, but it will really test what kind of character we have.”

On the other sideline, the Chargers (9-4) are thriving under Jim Harbaugh. After beating the Chiefs 27-21 in the season opener in Brazil, Los Angeles has built momentum toward a second consecutive playoff appearance. A win at Arrowhead would not only complete a season sweep of their rivals but also push their playoff probability to near-lock status (around 95%).

The Quarterback Battle

Justin Herbert has quietly put together an elite campaign. Despite dealing with a fractured bone in his non-throwing hand—an injury that required surgery just two weeks ago—Herbert continues to execute Harbaugh’s system efficiently.

The Chargers’ offense ranks 11th in total yards and is elite on third down, converting 47.1% of attempts. However, Herbert is working with a depleted offensive line, with stars Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater on injured reserve. This has forced him to use his legs more, already setting a career-high in rushing yards this season.

Conversely, Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of the most difficult performances of his career. In last week’s 20-10 loss to the Texans, Mahomes threw for just 160 yards and three interceptions, posting a passer rating of 19.9. It was a statistical low point that highlighted the offensive dysfunction plaguing Kansas City this year.

Key Matchups and Injuries

The trenches will likely decide this game. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been decimated by injury, but there is a glimmer of hope with right guard Trey Smith expected to return. He will join rookie tackle Esa Pole, who is projected to start again on the blindside. They face a Chargers pass rush featuring Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu that will look to exploit any protection breakdowns.

Kansas City’s defense, led by Steve Spagnuolo, has been the team’s saving grace for much of the season. They will need to contain a Chargers run game split between Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal. The Chiefs held Hampton to just 3.2 yards per carry in Week 1, and repeating that performance is essential to forcing Herbert into obvious passing situations.

One specific storyline to watch is the return of Xavier Worthy. In the Week 1 opener, the speedy receiver dislocated his shoulder after a collision with teammate Travis Kelce, an injury that sidelined him for weeks. Worthy expressed a sense of unfinished business heading into this rematch, he said, “Having a great game is cool, but we have bigger things ahead of us. We need to win out.”

Mental Toughness Factor

Beyond the X’s and O’s, the mental aspect of this game cannot be overstated. The Chargers have historically struggled to close out games against Kansas City, but they broke a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs earlier this year. Harbaugh has instilled a new toughness in Los Angeles, and they are playing with the confidence of a team destined for January football.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are fighting frustration. Dropped passes, turnovers, and uncharacteristic errors have defined their 2025 campaign. However, this is still a roster with championship pedigree. As Justin Herbert warned, “You’re not going to go in there and dominate any team just willy-nilly. They’re very good… and they’re much better than their record indicates.”

Prediction

This game will likely be tight. The last four meetings between these teams have been decided by a single score. Kansas City is desperate, playing at home, and fighting for their season. While the Chargers have been the better team consistently this year, it is difficult to bet against Mahomes with his back against the wall.

Expect a physical, defensive battle where possession time and turnovers make the difference. If the Chiefs can protect Mahomes and limit the mistakes that doomed them against Houston, they have a path to victory. However, if the Chargers can control the clock and pressure the quarterback, it could mark the end of the Chiefs’ dynasty as we know it.

Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.