The AFC South Showdown: Can Indy Finally Exorcise the Demons Of Duval?
It is Week 14 of the 2025 season, and if you told me back in August that the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars would be locked in a dead heat at 8-4 for the AFC South crown, I probably would have asked to see your time machine.
Yet, here we are. Sunday’s clash isn’t just another mark on the calendar; it is the kind of late-season drama that makes the NFL the best reality show on television. We’ve got two teams with identical records, a tiebreaker situation that’s messier than a Thanksgiving family dinner, and a history of psychological trauma that tilts heavily in one direction.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, and quite frankly, the vibes couldn’t be weirder. Let’s dive into the storylines that are going to define this pivotal AFC South slugfest.
The AFC South title Is On the Line
Let’s cut right to the chase: whoever wins this game is probably going to host a playoff game. Whoever loses is going to be checking the Wild Card math with a bottle of Pepto-Bismol in hand for the next month.
Both squads are sitting pretty at 8-4, but the Jaguars are currently holding the keys to the car in the AFC South thanks to the tiebreaker. A win for Jacksonville puts them in the driver’s seat with a definitive head-to-head advantage and a better division record. A win for Indy flips the script entirely.
With only four games left after the final whistle blows on Sunday, there isn’t enough runway left for a comeback. This is a “put up or shut up” moment. It’s December football, baby. It’s not supposed to be comfortable.
The “Duval Curse” Is Living Rent-Free In Indy’s Head
You have to feel for Colts fans. Watching their team travel to Jacksonville is like watching a horror movie where you know exactly when the jump scare is coming, but you still spill your popcorn.
The Colts have lost 10 consecutive games in Jacksonville. Ten. That is a decade of despair. Presidents have changed, technology has evolved, and entire NFL careers have started and ended since the last time the Colts left Duval County with a smile.
Sure, the players will tell you the past doesn’t matter. They’ll give you the standard locker room clichés about “taking it one week at a time.” But let’s be real—that streak is a heavy ghost to carry. The Colts have lost two straight and three of their last four coming into this. Heading into a stadium where you haven’t won since the mid-2010s while trying to stop a skid? That is a tall order for a team trying to find its identity.
Quarterback Questions: A Hobbled Jones vs. A Hungry Lawrence
The quarterback matchup here is fascinating for all the wrong (and right) reasons.
On one side, you have Daniel Jones for the Colts. It’s been a nice redemption story for “Danny Dimes” this year—he’s cleaned up the mistakes and looked solid. But he’s dealing with a fibula injury that looms larger than a lineman at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Jones’ mobility is his superpower; if he’s stuck in the pocket like a statue, the Colts are in trouble. With the Jaguars’ pass rush starting to heat up, a stationary Jones is a sitting duck.
On the other sideline, Trevor Lawrence has a golden opportunity. The Colts’ secondary is banged up and will be missing Sauce Gardner (a massive blow for Indy). Lawrence is staring down one of the most important regular-season games of his career. The prediction here? The Prince of Jacksonville outduels a hobbled Jones.
Can Jonathan Taylor Carry the Load?
If Jones can’t dance around the pocket, the Colts need Jonathan Taylor to be Superman. The problem? Superman has been stuck in a phone booth lately.
Over the last two weeks, opposing defenses have looked at the Colts and said, “We aren’t letting number 28 beat us.” They’ve stacked the box, holding Taylor to an average of just 3.8 yards per carry with zero trips to the end zone.
The Jaguars’ run defense knows exactly what’s coming. They are going to dare a one-legged Jones to beat them through the air. I expect Taylor to make some plays, he’s too good not to, but don’t be surprised if the Jags keep him out of the end zone and force Indy to play left-handed. This is a pivotal game for the AFC South to see who will be the sole owner of first place.
