It is the time of the year for NFL playoff scenarios. Heading into week 18, we have nine teams who have already clinched with five spots to go. Despite not having all of the teams known, we have a pretty good idea of the matchups we might see. There are so many tantalizing potential matchups, but the most interesting question is whether we could see two teams who have never even made a Super Bowl finally break the streak.
NFL Playoff Scenarios: First Timers In The Super Bowl
There are only four NFL teams that have never made a Super Bowl. The Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never represented their conference in the Super Bowl. Two of those teams have already clinched a playoff spot. The Lions are locked into the three seed in the NFC. While they could theoretically get the two seeds, it would take a loss by both the Eagles and Cowboys, something that seems unlikely. The Browns are locked into the five seed, as the Ravens have the division already locked up.
Jacksonville needs to win on Sunday against Tennessee to be in, and then they will be the fourth seed. In order for a Super Bowl of first-timers, the Lions would have to be the one to come out of the NFC. In the AFC, either the Browns or the Jaguars would need to win the conference, and they are likely to play on wild card weekend. None of these teams are the prohibitive favorites, but this year, there hasn’t been any team that has set themselves apart for the entire season. How realistic is this scenario?
Most Likely Outcome
I don’t believe in the Jaguars. They have been too inconsistent, especially on offense. Trevor Lawrence is banged up, and historically, the franchise hasn’t done well in the playoffs. Furthermore, they have to play the Browns first, who I would favor in the matchup. This means that in order for us to have this dream NFL playoff scenario, it would have to be the Browns and the Lions.
At first glance, this seems ridiculous. There are many NFL playoff scenarios, and saying these two tortured franchises will make it to the big game might seem preposterous. The Lions have looked a tier below everyone all season, and their defense is suspect. For the Browns, while the Joe Flacco story has been great, everyone is waiting for the clock to strike midnight. Injuries have also ravaged this team on both sides of the ball, leaving them depleted in key areas. However, when we break it down, this isn’t that far-fetched.
The Case For The Browns
Let’s start in Cleveland. As I mentioned before, I have the Browns beating the Jaguars in the wild-card round. From there, we have to do some assuming of other matchups. The Dolphins would play the seventh seed, which right now is the Colts. Regardless of the opponent, I think Miami has too much firepower for the lowest seed. Kansas City is a conundrum, but I am going to believe in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in round one. This means the Browns would play the Ravens in the divisional round, which for other teams might seem daunting, but not for the Browns.
Of all the NFL playoff scenarios, this is the most juicy. Flacco comes back to Baltimore to try and knock off the team he quarterbacked for so many seasons. It is a division rivalry game in the playoffs, which is always higher stakes. Baltimore has speed, which is how they have beaten teams throughout the season, but Cleveland has plenty of speed to match. Myles Garrett is good for a couple of game-wrecking plays, and Lamar Jackson hasn’t exactly impressed in the playoffs. Of all the AFC teams, the Browns have the best chance to knock off the Ravens.
From there, I like Cleveland in whoever would win the Chiefs-Dolphins matchups. The Dolphins are too banged up on defense to win three straight rounds. The defense would suffocate Kansas City’s anemic offense. Garrett would have a field day against those tackles. A lot has to happen, but this isn’t a far-fetched NFL playoff scenario.
The Case For The Lions
The Lions have the advantage of avoiding the top seed until the NFC Championship Game. Their first-round matchup will not be easy as either the Rams or the Packers will be coming to Detroit. One of the other juiciest playoff scenarios would be Matthew Stafford coming back to Detriot and Jared Goff playing his former team. Regardless, I could see the Lions moving on. From there, it would be a rematch in Dallas.
We know the Lions can beat Dallas. They pretty much did it last Saturday, if not for an all-time blunder by the refs. Historically, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have choked in the playoffs, and while this could be the year, I’ll believe it when I see it. Detroit had problems covering CeeDee Lamb but should be getting some key secondary pieces back. From there, the Lions are hoping that San Francisco loses in the divisional round to (likely) Philadelphia.
If the Lions play Philadelphia, it would be at home, which is a plus, and against a defense that is bleeding points. If it is the 49ers, the Lions still have a chance. The one-game playoffs in the NFL mean anything can happen in one game. If Aidan Hutchinson plays out of his mind and Ben Johnson calls the perfect game, the Lions could shock the world and make it to the Super Bowl.
The Case Against Both Teams
Of all the NFL playoff scenarios, a lot has to go right for this to happen. Flacco has to continue playing out of his mind. We’ve seen backup quarterbacks like Joshua Dobbs and Tommy DeVito have big moments, but they flame out after a couple of weeks. Can Flacco keep this type of play up? The injuries might be too much at some point, as well.
For the Lions, the defense is the concern. There is no question that the offense can score in bunches behind a devastating run game, but if the defense can’t stop anybody, it won’t matter. They have the 23rd-ranked scoring defense, giving up 23.4 points per game. (It is worth noting that in the last three, they are averaging 20.3 points per game.)
Other Great NFL Playoff Scenarios
We’ve already mentioned a couple of great NFL playoff scenarios. There are a lot of players that could face their former team outside of Flacco and Stafford. Tyreek Hill playing against Kansas City would be so much fun to watch as an NFL fan. CJ Gardner-Johnson could face his old team if the Lions and Eagles somehow match up in the championship game. All of those are great underlying storylines for fans.
From there, there are some NFL playoff scenarios that bring us revenge matchups. Dallas would love nothing more than to avenge last year’s playoff loss and this year’s early season embarrassment by going into San Francisco and winning. The Bills and the Chiefs could be on a collision course yet again, which is always an entertaining matchup.
Overall, this is shaping up to be a very entertaining postseason. Could we see a first-timers Super Bowl? It is more possible than you might think, looking at the matchups. There isn’t a far and away favorite. Every team seems to have a fatal flaw that could cause them to stumble in the postseason. The playoffs are one week away, and the NFL playoff scenarios will continue to be hashed out throughout the day on Sunday.
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