Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros

Will the Seattle Mariners Struggle or Make the Playoffs?

Demian Malcher

Right now, the Seattle Mariners sit at 32–26, leading the American League West by a narrow margin. Their season has been defined by potent pitching, inconsistent offense, and a handful of injuries that have tested roster depth. Below is a detailed recap of their campaign thus far, along with an analysis of their playoff odds as of June.

Early Flashes and Struggles

April began rocky: the Seattle Mariners dropped four of their first six games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Giants. However, they closed April by winning four consecutive series, finishing with a 17–13 record and capturing first place in the West thanks to a late rally in the final week. Key contributors were:

  • Cal Raleigh: Who homered 10 times in April, providing a power surge from the catcher position.
  • Dylan Moore and Jorge Polanco: Teamed up for back-to-back American League Player of the Week honors in late April, offsetting early-month offensive deficiencies.
  • Andrés Muñoz: Converted all 11 save opportunities in April without allowing a run, anchoring a shutdown late bullpen.

Despite these bright spots, injuries hindered consistency: George Kirby (elbow) and relievers Matt Brash and Troy Taylor began the year on the IL, while Víctor Robles, Ryan Bliss, Logan Gilbert, Moore, Luke Raley, and Gregory Santos missed extended time.

May Inconsistency

May’s 15–12 record was only possible because of offensive slumps. After winning nine consecutive series in mid-April, the lineup cooled; the team batted just .224 through the first two weeks of May, ranking near the bottom of the AL. With notable May events being:

  • The Seattle Mariners’ Rotation Strength: The starting five, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby (finally healthy), and Bryan Baker, combined for a 3.78 ERA, the lowest in MLB over those two months.
  • But that overlapped with Bullpen Woes: Overworked after early-season injuries, the bullpen posted a 4.15 May ERA, ranking 12th in the AL. Key relievers, notably Trevor Gott and José Leclerc, struggled heavily.
  • What didn’t help was the Offensive Stagnation: the middle of the order (.687 OPS) and the bottom third (.612 OPS) performed below league average, placing pressure on Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, and Raleigh to carry the run production.

Despite these struggles, the Seattle Mariners entered June with a 31–26 record, just half a game ahead of the Houston Astros. A pivotal 9–0 loss to Washington in late May nearly derailed their momentum, but a walk-off win over Minnesota on June 1 helped regain that momentum.

The Seattle Mariners’ June Resurgence

In June’s opening series, the Seattle Mariners won game one 3–2 on a late Félix Bautista meltdown, demonstrating clutch resilience. As of June 3, they held a 32–26 record:

  • AL West: 1st (half-game ahead of Astros at 32–27; Rangers trail at 29–31).
  • Run Differential: +8 (263 runs scored, 255 allowed).
  • Home/Away Split: 16–14 at T-Mobile Park, 16–12 on the road.

Seattle Mariners Manager Dan Wilson (now 31–26) has guided the club through both adversity and peaks, leaning heavily on the pitching staff while hoping bats find consistency.

Playoff Odds

FanGraphs gives Seattle an 82.9% chance to make the playoffs, ranking behind only the Yankees (82.7%) among AL contenders.

Fangraphs (as of June 3) projects:

  • 63.4% chance to make the postseason (up from mid-May projections thanks to rotation dominance and narrow division lead)
  • 2.1% chance to win the World Series, reflecting uncertainty about run support alongside strong pitching.

Baseball-Reference concurs with roughly 60–65% odds to reach the playoffs, noting that a weak AL West (Astros sub-.550 and Rangers just below .500) helps the Seattle Mariners’ path back to October!

Key Drivers and Outlook Pitching as Foundation

Seattle’s rotation continues to carry the team to wins. Bryan Woo leads MLB starters with a sub-3.00 FIP, while Luis Castillo has an AL-best 2.85 ERA. Prospects George Kirby (once healthy) and Logan Gilbert help with depth. Mild bullpen reinforcement at the trade deadline could transform relief struggles into strengths.

Need for Offensive Consistency and Depth

The lineup, especially at the top of the order, needs to step back up! Julio Rodríguez (.279/.338/.483) remains the anchor, but slumping veterans Eugenio Suárez (.221 slugging in May) and Raleigh (.210 average in May) need to improve midseason. Especially if the Mariners wanna go deep in the postseason for the first time since 2001. The emergence of Taylor Trammell (batting .275 in June) offers hope for bottom-order stability.

The AL West struggles Helping out the Seattle Mariners

The Astros (32–27) have faltered from their early-season form, and the Rangers (29–31) continue to battle inconsistency. If the Seattle Mariners’ offense rebounds even modestly, they can sustain control of the West. The remaining series against the struggling Baltimore Orioles and a strict set in Houston from June 10 to 12 are pivotal for division control and a playoff spot.

Conclusion

Through 64 games, the Mariners showcase the league’s top pitching staff and a resilient, if uneven, offense. Dan Wilson’s leadership keeps them afloat amid injuries and scoring slumps. With a 63–82% range of playoff odds across major projections, Seattle is firmly in contention. Yet the ultimate outcome hinges on whether the offense finds rhythm, particularly from the middle and bottom of the order, to complement their rotation’s brilliance. For now, the franchise’s first postseason berth since 2001 appears highly likely, provided they maintain pitching health and shore up run production to avoid a repeat of late-season fade.

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