The Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) will face the Houston Texans (9-5) on Saturday, December 21, at 1 p.m. EDT. This Week 16 matchup will occur at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium and marks the Chiefs’ final home game of the regular season. This game is also crucial because it could constitute one of the two wins Kansas City needs in order to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC/Peacock.
Houston, meanwhile, has already checked off its checklist, clinching the AFC South for the second season in a row. They currently sit as the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff picture but continue to fight for higher playoff seeding as they enter this game. Despite having injuries to key players on both sides of the ball, the Texans remain a formidable opponent, making the matchup against the Chiefs a potential playoff preview.
Game/Team Matchup Info
The main storyline surrounding this game concerns Kansas City’s starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes’s availability. As things stand now, all signs point to Mahomes playing this Saturday. Despite exiting the game on Sunday against the Browns with what ended up being a high-ankle sprain, Mahomes has not missed or been limited whatsoever in practice this week. However, if Mahomes cannot go, then backup Carson Wentz will take over under center. With this uncertainty, the Chiefs are a slight underdog heading into this game, with ESPN odds favoring Houston by one point. The over/under for the game is set at 41.5.
Head-to-head, the Chiefs hold a 9-5 all-time record against the Texans, with their more memorable wins in 2020 and 2022. In their most recent meeting two years ago, Kansas City secured a 30-24 overtime victory, which led them to securing their seventh consecutive AFC West title. This time, with new faces on both teams, the stakes are even higher as both teams have major playoff implications riding on this game.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but they do have one area they can lean on, and that’s their defenses. Both the Chiefs and Texans rank in the top 10 in several categories. Kansas City’s defense entering this game allows just 18.5 points per game, while Houston isn’t far behind at 21.4. With glaring holes on both teams’ respective offenses, this game can certainly turn out to be a defensive battle and come down to which team can take advantage of the other’s mishaps at the right time to secure this win.
Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Outlook
The Chief’s offense usually heavily hinges on the play of Patrick Mahomes, who would even admit that this has not been his best season. However, in what many have considered a “down” year, Mahomes has still amassed 3,348 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Now, he’s dealing with this ankle injury, which means if the Chiefs star quarterback is unable to go, it will be the Carson Wentz show.
Carson Wentz, a Super Bowl Champion, started in only one game for the Rams last season. In that game, Wentz went 17-of-24 for 163 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, leading the Rams to a victory over the San Francisco 49ers. This season, the only real game action he has seen was last Sunday against the Browns when Mahomes exited the game in the fourth quarter.
Wentz went 2-for-2 on his pass attempts and showed poise and smart decision-making, which should come as no surprise given his track record and having Andy Reid on the sideline. If Wentz does end up being under center for Kansas City, Reid has a proven track record of winning games even without his starting quarterback at the helm.
Another concern for the Chief’s offense heading into this game will be their offensive line, which has been a revolving door of players all season. They have allowed frequent pressure on Mahomes, and with him not being at 100%, if he does end up playing, it will certainly be another area of the offense to pay attention to.
However, their most recent offensive line combination of Jawaan Taylor, Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, Mike Caliendo, and Joe Thuney did not surrender a single sack against the Browns. This group might be their best bet for protecting whoever lines up under center for Kansas City this week. Especially considering the defensive front the Chiefs will be facing this week, which is headlined by edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who ranks second in the NFL with 12 sacks.
Houston Texans Defensive Challenges
Similar to the Chiefs this season, the Texans’ defense has been the driving force of this team. With playmakers on all levels of this defense, they enter this game ranked 4th in the NFL in total defense. Their strongest area on this side of the ball is stopping the pass. They are currently only giving up 196.9 yards per game, which is good for sixth-best in the entire NFL.
Even without safety Jalen Pitre, the Texans still have a dominant secondary led by cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who leads this defense in interceptions (five) and pass breakups (17). However, he’s not the only one shutting down opposing offenses’ passing games. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter and safety Eric Murray are right with him, creating a no-fly zone on defense for the Texans.
The potency of their secondary leads to their defensive front seven, which is also stacked. Leading this group is Hunter, who is second in the NFL with sacks but also leads his team with 17 tackles for loss on the season. However, he’s not alone in causing chaos for opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks.
Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. is right on the other end of their defensive line, causing just as much disruption with his 10.5 sacks and 14 TFLs on the season. Then, right behind them is an elite linebacking one-two punch of Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair, but Al-Shaair will also be missing this game due to his suspension. To’oTo’o leads this defense with 87 total tackles and will have to do more with Al-Shaair missing the contest.
Players to Watch for the Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s offensive player to watch is Patrick Mahomes. Given his injury, if he can go, all eyes will be on his every movement, whether on or off the field. From his mobility to his decision-making, his movement will dictate the offensive plan. If Mahomes struggles while out there, Reid might have to make the call to move to backup Wentz, who would face significant pressure in his first start since 2022.
On defense, defensive end George Karlaftis continues to emerge as an elite pass rusher in this league. Karlaftis currently leads the Chiefs with seven sacks and is coming off a two-sack performance in their win over the Browns. His ability to attack a less-than-stellar Houston offensive line and force C. J. Stroud and the Texans to alter their decision-making can be the difference in allowing Kansas City to pull this game out.
Players to Watch for the Houston Texans
Offensively, wide receiver Nico Collins is the player to watch for Houston. Collins has racked up 849 yards and six touchdowns, leading the Texans in both categories. His connection with Stroud has been key to their success this season. If they hope to come out on top over the defending champs, sustaining drives and attacking Kansas City’s secondary will be vital for their chances to come out on top.
Defensively, defensive end Hunter remains Houston’s most impactful player. With 12 sacks and a relentless motor, Hunter can single-handedly alter the course of a game. He will likely have the advantage over whoever he lines up across, so if he can consistently pressure Mahomes or Wentz, the Texans’ chances of victory improve dramatically.
Final Thoughts
Saturday’s matchup is a crucial test for both teams. The Chiefs are fighting for the AFC’s top seed while the Texans look to improve their playoff position. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses that could sway the game’s outcome. Kansas City’s ability to protect Mahomes and establish an offensive rhythm will be key. If the Texans can generate pressure and limit big plays, they have a realistic shot at an upset. With postseason implications on the line, this game promises to be another exciting AFC faceoff.
