Look at the statistics of the Chicago Bears. They tell a story about their first three games of 2024. There’s the easy narrative of the Bears not having a run game, the Bears offensive line being terrible, and play calling being suspect. Other obvious factors are that the rookies have experienced growing pains, and the Bears look like a 1-2 football team. What if I told you the numbers tell a far different story?

Numbers With Context

If you’ve watched the Chicago Bears’ first three games – you have the context necessary to look at the boxscore and draw conclusions. You have seen the O-line blow pass-protection schemes and whiff on run-blocking attempts. You’ve witnessed some conservative playcalling and plays that do not seem to accentuate the strengths of the Bears’ personnel on the field at any given time.

You’ve watched Caleb Williams scramble for his life and have to climb off the turf after getting hit time and time again. These are all accurate observations and reasonable assessments of what has happened during certain moments in those games. Let’s look at the raw data without the context we’ve witnessed on the field, which has skewed our perceptions of the Chicago Bears thus far.

The Naked Data

So far, in 2024, the Chicago Bears are leading their opponents in several important statistical categories. First downs – Bears: 52, opponents: 46. Whether it feels like it or not, the Bears are moving the sticks. The problem is that the Bears are getting these first downs on early downs, not third downs. 3rd down conversions – Bears: 17/51 (33% success rate), opponents 10/40 (25% success rate). Third downs are when defenses send blitzes the most, and the Chicago Bears offense has not done well with picking up the blitz. The Bears’ defense has done an outstanding job executing blitzes.

Bears’ OC Shane Waldron has not called enough high-percentage plays on third downs to get the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands in under 2.5 seconds. The offensive line and coaches have failed to execute the protection schemes consistently. Combine that with Caleb holding on to the ball for too long, whether it’s the play call or his improvisation, and disaster results. At the heart of the problem, it’s likely not as much about scheme or talent but more about confidence and execution. This can be fixed in practice during the week and in enough game reps.

Crunch Time

When it matters the most, the Chicago Bears have better results on fourth downs. Fourth down conversions – Bears: 7/9 (77% success rate), opponents 2/4 (50% success rate). This is a sign that the Chicago Bears have been trailing late in games with a chance to win, and the coaching staff has the confidence in their offense to go for it an average of 3 times per game. The Chicago Bears defense is statistically better on 3rd downs than on 4th downs. Often, 4th downs are short enough for the opponent to run the ball, and the Bears’s D-line is exploitable in short yardage, whereas the Bears’ secondary is solid in pass coverage on 3rd downs.

The Chicago Bears’ defense has sacked their opponent’s quarterback only seven times this season, while Bears’ opponents have crunched Caleb Williams 13 times. The defense needs to be more aggressive in getting after the opponent’s QB on passing downs, and the Chicago Bears offense needs to protect their prized rookie QB much better on 3rd downs and call plays to get the ball out of his hands quicker. Until the offensive line shows they can crunch someone in run-blocking, the Bears have found an identity on offense in the passing game with WR Rome Odunze, TE Cole Kmet, and WR DJ Moore.

Conclusion

Identities can be hard to come by on young teams in the NFL. The Chicago Bears defense has the experience, talent, and scheme to be the team’s overall identity – but the offensive identity finally became apparent in week 3 against the Colts. It’s the intermediate passing game. Put the ball in Caleb Williams’ hands, get it out in under 2.5 seconds on average, and let your playmakers do what you pay them for. It might be time to abandon ship with the run game until there is reason to believe in it again. Throw to score.

The Chicago Bears have averaged 70 plays per game on offense, with just over 56% being passing plays. That number needs to increase to about 70% if the Bears want to have a chance to win now. Cut your losses and work on your weaknesses – but put your most time and energy into what you are good at and where most of your talent is. Pass catchers and pass throwers. Maybe later in the season, the Bears can rip off a few runs up the gut off of pass-action, but right now, the run game looks better off left alone. The defense will bail them out.

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