Did Manchester United Dodge A Bullet With Carlos Baleba’s Drop In Form?

Carlos Baleba arrived on the Premier League radar as a raw, high-ceiling midfielder who could change games with energy and forward passing. Interest from Manchester United was loud during the summer, and scouting reports painted him as a younger version of a modern box-to-box player. 

Recent numbers, form, and match reports tell a different story. This piece breaks down what has happened to Baleba since the summer, why Brighton still trusts him, and what Manchester United would be buying if they revive interest next window. 

Why The Numbers Say His Season Has Slumped

The clearest way to see the problem is through 90 metrics. Comparing last season to this season shows a collapse in Baleba’s creative and progressive output. 

Passes into the final 3rd dropped from 3.7 to 2.1 per 90. Progressive passes tumbled from 4.0 to 1.5 per 90. Shot-creating actions fell from 2.2 to 0.7 per 90. Defensive actions declined from 4.2 to 3.1 per 90. Successful dribbles went from 1.1 to 0.7 per 90. Those are not marginal shifts.

They are the kind of fall off that turns a transfer target into a question mark. Core public databases and performance platforms confirm the direction and scale of those declines. 

Several things jump out from those raw metrics. First, the creative drops suggest Baleba is less involved in moving the ball forward and in unlocking opponents. A reduction in progressive passing is especially damaging for a midfielder who made his name by carrying and feeding attacks. 

Second, the defensive metrics falling means he is not contributing as reliably in winning the ball back. That was a key selling point to scouts who watched him dominate possession regains last season.

Third, the dip in dribbles signals less confidence or less space being found in the final third. Those three problems stacked together make his season look muted, even if the eye test still sees flashes.

What Could Explain The Drop Off

A single cause does not explain the decline. Transfer speculation changed the public narrative around Baleba during the summer. 

Media links to Manchester United were persistent, and the attention can affect a player who is still 21 years old. Brighton’s manager has publicly encouraged humility and warned about the noise around Baleba. 

The timing of substitution patterns and moments where the player looks fatigued suggest that mental and physical load are factors. Match reports from key fixtures show he still has moments of brilliance, such as a long-range winner, but those moments are becoming less frequent. 

Tactical context at Brighton matters too. Managerial tweaks, role adjustments, and the presence of competing midfield profiles change how much freedom Baleba receives. 

If the coach asks him to sit deeper or cover different zones, then progressive numbers will naturally dip. Opponents can also target him differently after last season’s breakout performances. 

Teams have more data and will intentionally deny the pockets of space that once made his attacking passing lethal. Those match planning details show up in the numbers and explain part of the drop. 

Fitness and minutes are another angle. Continuous full matches with international travel, training intensity, and recovery carry a cost.

A young athlete can burn out or play below peak for blocks of fixtures. Brighton still picks him regularly, which suggests trust from the coaching staff, but regular starts do not equal peak performance. A careful look at minutes per match and substitution timings gives that nuance which raw starts do not show. 

What Manchester United Would Be Buying Today

Manchester United’s midfield reality is clear. The club has invested in players who provide defensive steel and creative spark. 

Bruno Fernandes remains the creative hub at Old Trafford, and Casemiro, along with him, adds ball-winning and balance. Any suitor evaluating Baleba today must weigh his upside against a period of poor output. 

The market still prices potential aggressively, and Brighton knows that. Reports indicate United did express interest in the summer and continues to monitor the youngster, but questions about valuation have surfaced given the inconsistent form this season.

Anyone at Old Trafford assessing the transfer would have to be confident the player can return to last season’s levels. There is a realistic scenario where United buys low if Brighton prices him down after a slump. That trade-off carries risk. A buy-low option could yield a bargain if the club has the right coaching and reintegration plan. 

The alternative approach is to wait until Baleba proves he can sustain his output for several months. Reports have suggested that Amorim might look elsewhere as well, with Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson now heavily linked with the club. 

Data-driven scouting departments will look beyond headline numbers and focus on underlying metrics such as pressure frequency, progressive carries, and positional occupancy. Those deeper indicators reveal whether a player’s dip is temporary or part of a longer-term trend. 

How Brighton Should Handle This And What The Player Needs To Do

Brighton have a track record for developing midfield talent and for managing sale windows with patience. In the short term, they should shield Baleba from the marketplace by clarifying his role and managing minutes. 

Tactical tweaks to restore his progressive passing lanes would help. Individual work on decision-making in the final third could increase shot-creating actions. Rest and recovery combined with targeted gym work would likely restore his physical sharpness.

Coaching that recreates last season’s conditions, where he had more space and clearer passing lanes, could jumpstart numbers again. From Baleba’s point of view, the prescription is straightforward. Focus on the basics that made him stand out: aggressiveness in regaining possession, cleaner first touches, forward passing, and selective carries that destabilize the opponent.

Avoid unnecessary risk and conserve energy in sequences that do not require him to press. Confidence can return with a shorter attention to small wins rather than headline plays. If those micro improvements happen, then the macro metrics will follow. Fans may not love the slow patient climb, but the long-term payoff is a return to being a must-sign. 

Final Thoughts 

Carlos Baleba remains young with clear top-level attributes. Recent per 90 metrics reveal a serious drop in creative and defensive contribution when compared to last season. 

Multiple causes are likely at play, including transfer speculation, tactical changes, fitness, and natural opponent adaptation. Brighton and the player both have tools to reverse the slide. Any club now linked to him must decide between buying potential at a discount or waiting for proof of regained form. 

Time will tell if this is a temporary trough or the start of a longer plateau. Scouting reports and trusted databases continue to show the raw traits that attracted Manchester United once. The safe conclusion is that Baleba is not the same attacking catalyst he was last season, but remains a project with a high ceiling for clubs willing to invest in precise rehabilitation.