Why The Real 2025 Champion Isn’t In The Final 4

The 2025 Final Four has been set, featuring Larson, Byron, Hamlin, and Briscoe. These four great drivers had a great season, so nothing most fans wouldn’t bat an eye at. Doesn’t help that, unlike trucks and Xfinity this year, there hasn’t been a dominant driver in Cup. But Bell should be there!

Christopher Bell Had The Best Average Finish in 2025

Bell’s average finish of 11.2 beats out the final 4, but by a reasonable amount. The next-closest driver is his JGR teammate, Chase Briscoe, with a 12.5. Almost a whole 1.0 above Briscoe’s average finish. And Bell’s 11.2 beat Kyle Larson’s 13.7 and Hamlin’s 14.2 by a significant margin.

Bell even has the most top 10s in 2025, with 22, beating out Larson, who has 21, though he could tie it.As a matter of fact, Bell isn’t the only driver who’s in the top 5 in average finish that isn’t in the final 4. As Chase Elliott, who has an average finish of 12.7, better than Larson, Byron, and Hamlin, but also got eliminated.

But This Is By Design

As the points restart at the start of the playoff, and then for every round. So even if you’re having an all-time great season, all it takes is three bad races, and you can’t compete for a title like Harvick in 2020. According to the Twitter account, NASCAR Winston Cup Series Standings. Under the old Winston format, Bell (2025) would have been all but clinched! As the best case for Briscoe, Bell finishes last (38th) with no laps led.

Briscoe will need 161 points to win the championship: either a 3rd place finish with no laps led, a 4th place finish with one lap led, or a 5th place finish with the most laps led. Bell, under the old format, would be the 2025 champion. And that got me wondering how often the drivers with the best driver actually won in the playoffs.

How Often Does The Best Driver Win?

In 2014, Kevin Harvick won the title, which would be the only title he’d win in his career. But his 12.9 average finish was only good enough for 6th place. The man who earned the best average finish of 2014 was Jeff Gordon. With a 10.4 average finish, compare that to Bell’s 11.2 in 2025, and that really shows how great Bell has been this year.

Kyle Busch won the 2015 title after missing 10 races for an all-time comeback. But his 10.8 was only 3rd-best that year, with Harvick, ironically, getting the best average finish with an 8.7, putting Bell’s 2025 to shame. In 2016, Jimmie Johnson tied Richard Petty and Dale Sr. with seven titles.

But Jimmie had the 10th-best average finish at 14.0, while Kevin Harvick again had the best at 9.9. The trend breaks in 2017, when MTJ wins Furniture Row Racing’s only title. With a 9.4 average finish, the best all year.

Why Math Tells The Story

So that makes it 1-3, but if they keep this up into 2025, that ratio will tip into their favor. But then we got to get into the infamous 2018 season. The year NASCAR had a big 3 of drivers dominating, and none of them won the title.

Logano, the 2018 champion, tied with MTJ for the 3rd-best average finish at 10.7, but Kyle Busch had the best at 8.3. 2019 makes the score 2-4; however, Kyle Busch earned his 2nd title and the best average finish of the year with an 8.9.

But then comes the playoffs‘ most egregious robbery in 2020, that of Harvick’s. In 2020, Kevin Harvick had the highest average finish of any driver since Jeff Gordon in 2007. But he’d finish the year 5th in points.

Elliott won the title despite the 5th-best average finish. In 2021, despite Larson’s 10-win dominance, which clinched him the title, he couldn’t beat Hamlin for average finish, beating him 8.4 to 9.1.

Final Thoughts

In 2022, it was Elliott who was robbed, as he had the best average finish with 12.5, yet it was Logano with 13.5 that won the title. 2023 saw Byron earn the best average finish with a flat 11, but Blaney won the title with 14.1.

And in 2024, Elliott again had the best average finish at 11.7, but it was Logano, with 17.1, who wasn’t even the 10th-best average that season, who took the title. So, by 2025, the playoffs will only give the best driver the title twice, which says enough. Thanks a bunch for reading!