Which 6 Drivers Outside the Playoffs are Most Likely to Win Daytona?

Who could forget Harrison Burton’s shock Daytona win to earn his ticket into the playoffs last year? It was 1 of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history, but that’s why Daytona is the regular season finale, right? For one, there was a previous giant upset before the playoff standings are locked. So let’s see who can pull that off this year!

Michael McDowell

McDowell has been having a low-key good season, like he always does. He’s by far the most consistent of all the Spire drivers, with an average finish of 19.5, beating out Hocevar’s 21.8 and Haley’s 22.2. Of course, McDowell has a history of winning here, winning the 2021 Daytona 500, which was no fluke. As his 3 top fives, 8 top tens, and his 20.9 average finish all show that he’s primed and ready to punch a ticket into the playoffs!

John Hunter Nemechek

We don’t think of JHN as a plate track guy, but that’s only because he isn’t really a plate guy but a Daytona guy! In his four starts at NASCAR’s most famous track, he’s earned 1 top five and 3 top tens for an impressive average finish of 9.0.

An average finish that is well above both Atlanta and Talladega, as well as most tracks. He even began the season in the playoffs owing to both his 5th-place finish at Daytona, followed by his 10th-place finish at Atlanta. So he started the season in the playoffs, and he might end it there, too.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Of course, suppose you talk about someone winning at Daytona. In that case, you have to talk about Ricky Stenhouse Jr., A former Daytona 500 winner. He punched his way into the 2023 playoffs and also won in July 2017, where he famously said, “1776, America, we are the champs!” So, it’s only natural he’s on this playoff list.

Ryan Preece

The RFK man, in his first season at the historic Ford team, has proven the quality he showed in midpack equipment wasn’t flashes of brilliance but evidence of a great driver, with career highs of 3 top fives and 10 top tens, and all with 11 races left in the season. At the same time, it has the 13th-best average finish in the series so far.

However, it’s not significant enough to secure a spot in the playoff places, as it falls short of earning that first career win. But if it were to come anywhere, Daytona isn’t as unlikely a place as you’re thinking.

The two have a tumultuous history, to say the least, but he’s also had his bright spots here. 3 top tens, including a top 5 at the summer race in 2021. Along with his 3 top tens at Dega, he’s a plate track dark horse. And if he doesn’t end his race upside down again, he very well could end it in 1st.

Chris Buesche

Now, for another obvious pick: the man first below the playoff cutoff line, who had a really great season. He boasts the 7th best average finish in the series, is tied for the 4th most top tens with 12, and has the 3rd best average start, with an average starting position of 11.2.

So there’s no doubting Buescher belongs in the playoffs, but he can also get it done at Daytona. Of course, he won this very race 2 years ago, making him one of only two drivers to have a plate track race with the next-gen car. So he should be a favorite heading into Sunday.

Kyle Busch

Rowdy hasn’t looked like the ultra-aggressive and ultra-skilled champion who once split the fan base right in half between devotion and hatred. Despite struggling with his RCR equipment, Kyle outperformed his teammate, Austin Dillon, all season and secured a spot in the playoffs with a win. Why not him?

Of course, we all remember when Harrison Burton, on the last lap of this very race last year, blew by Kyle Busch on the outside, stealing his last chance to continue his playoff/chase streak. If he came so close to winning the same race the previous year, why can’t he do it this year? No doubt he’s looking for redemption, and it wouldn’t be the most difficult accomplishment of his career. Thanks a bunch for reading!