This weekend the Illinois Fighting Illini will travel to “Happy Valley” to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in a ranked Big Ten matchup. The visiting Illini look to upset a team with aspirations for the expanded CFP and maybe even create some of their own if they can make it out of Beaver Stadium with a win. If they do, it will be the largest upset against Penn State when both teams are ranked in Nittany Lions program history. Look for QB Luke Altmyer to have a big hand in leading the Illini, he is the only player in college football with ten or more touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The formidable Penn State squad under Head Coach James Franklin has had a couple of weeks to prepare for this bout. After a Week Three off week, the Nittany Lions drubbed Kent State 56-0 as they look forward to Big Ten play. With a litany of playmakers on both sides of the ball, Penn State starts the meat of their schedule with high hopes and great expectations for making some noise in the Big Ten hierarchy and CFP rankings. As of now they sit ninth in the land, a position they look to leave in the rearview if they can beat the Illinois Fighting Illini at home.
Ranked Big Ten Primetime Matchup In State College
The Big Ten has undergone some serious changes in recent months for the benefit of college football fans. More big games and marquee matchups have been added to the slate, including some that have already played out in the season’s first four weeks. USC and Michigan was a barnburner down to the wire and had real ramifications for the expanded CFP that debuts this winter. The next big game in the Big Ten is being played Saturday night in Happy Valley between the ninth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions and the 19th-ranked and upset-minded Illinois Fighting Illini.
Both teams enter undefeated but took different routes to get there. Illinois is a surprise in the young college football year, taking down ranked opponents Kansas and Nebraska on their path to being the 19th-ranked team in the land at 4-0. Illinois hasn’t been 4-0 since 2011. They will look to make it three upsets over ranked teams against James Franklin’s team and their second such game on the road. Both are feats they haven’t achieved since 2007 and the Juice Williams/Ron Zook era.
2024 Brings Lofty Expectations
The Penn State Nittany Lions came into the year with plenty of expectations. They returned numerous difference makers and are expecting some growth from their most critical players. The year started with a solid road win over West Virginia in stormy and volatile conditions in Morgantown. They then struggled to defeat Bowling Green before recharging with an early off week and beating up on a woeful Kent State team. At 3-0, they have their most important games ahead of them and by all analysis, plenty of room to improve.
Both teams will be playing from the same playbook for the most part when it comes to winning games in the Big Ten. They will focus on winning battles up front to dominate the line of scrimmage, limiting turnovers and penalties, and relying on their dynamic players to shift the tide of the ball game. Easier said than done, but if there’s anything clear heading into this one, it’s that these teams tout several elite athletes across the field.
Keys For #19 Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illinois Fighting Illini are heavy underdogs in this one so clicking on all cylinders is a must. They have been a solid team in all phases so far this year but haven’t been extraordinary in any one particular facet of the game. Some playmakers will have to step up and the rhythm of the game will have to be on their side if they want to keep their unlikely undefeated start alive. There are a lot of mysteries still to be uncovered for this Illinois team and fans are hoping they are going to be pleasantly surprised with what they see on the field at State College Saturday night in an ominous Happy Valley white-out.
Illinois’ Offense
Much of what Illinois has to do if they want to win is continue doing what they have been doing thus far to get them to 4-0. They have had precise quarterback play from Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer in his second year in Champaign and he has stewarded a solid Illinois Fighting Illini offense. He will have his most reliable and dynamic skill position players available to take on the Penn State defense, including his favorite target Zakhari Franklin, who was injured in the overtime win last week against Nebraska.
The Illini offense has been good enough to get the job done in action so far this year but Penn State will be their biggest test. If they want any chance of pulling off the huge upset, they are going to have to improve on the offensive line to help the running game and protect Altmyer or get more creative with the rushing attack and get Altmyer on the move more than he already has been this season.
The red zone poses a threat to Illinois. They have relied on WR Pat Bryant to do the bulk of their scoring through the air, and when that hasn’t worked out the Fighting Illini have had to get tricky, throwing to offensive linemen or going deep into the playbook to break the plane. With a strong and developing Penn State Nittany Lions secondary, the offense might be forced to adjust if they want to punch the ball in for six.
Defense
Illinois has had a dynamic defensive unit that sets up their offense very well. Nickel Cornerback Xavier Scott has turned heads with his play this year, most notably against Kansas when he made two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown. Most importantly though, is that the rest of his teammates in the defensive backfield have begun to match the play of Scott, including another Scott (no relation), Miles Scott, who is second on the team in picks with a pair of his own, and Matthew Bailey, who leads the team in tackles.
Playing against a Penn State team that likes to lure DB’s in with an effective run game before launching the ball deep with Drew Allar, the play of the Illinois defensive backfield will be paramount if this one is going to be close. Having success against the Penn State Nittany Lions offensive line doesn’t guarantee slowing down the run game either. Assisting the big guys up front in corralling Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton could make or break drives for this defensive unit.
Keys For #9 Penn State Nittany Lions
It has not been easing treading for this Penn State Nittany Lions team since their impressive opening weekend win on the road against West Virginia. They stumbled through a Week Two win over Bowling Green and then beat up on a paltry Kent State team after an off week. Much of the framework of last year’s team is still intact and the hope for the Nittany Lions faithful is that their talent will shine through in a complete victory over the upstart Illinois Fighting Illini. They are expected to crush the Orange Crush in their Big Ten opener before looking beyond to their big aspirations for 2024.
Penn State’s Offense
The three-headed monster of Drew Allar, Kaytron Allen, and Nick Singleton headlines this Penn State Nittany Lions offense. The improvement of Allar is a must if Penn State wants to contend for the CFP and the good news for Nittany Lions fans is that he has made some small, yet encouraging strides in 2024. The stagnant and cumbersome offense that took the field last year has done its part to get out of its shell and become more dynamic.
The offense still runs through the running game and the MO for the Penn State offensive attack will be getting Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton off and running. Establishing the run is the quickest way the Nittany Lions can squash any hope for an upset. The Illinois defensive line ranks 11th in the country against the run but has not been tested the way Penn State portends to Saturday night. When the game gets tight, the Illinois Fighting Illini defense has been more prolific in their pass rush than their run stoppage and Franklin’s crew will key on that to see what kind of resistance they find up front.
Penn State’s Offensive Keys
The Illinois secondary might stave off attempts to take risks in the downfield passing game but that has been a new aspect of the Penn State Nittany Lions offense. Allar has looked more downfield trying to push the ball beyond secondaries when allowed to play off the fierce rushing attack. If Allar can complement an efficient running game with a couple of big plays with his arm, everything will open up for this offense.
If they can not get the running game going, then Allar must take on a new challenge. He hasn’t shown an ability to take the game into his own hands. Despite being a highly-touted recruit, he has not had to shoulder the offensive burden often in State College. If the offense requires poised and elite passing when the defense is geared up for it, that might pose a problem for Allar. On the other hand, if he can succeed in a situation like that, then the entire outlook of the Penn State offense changes not just in this game, but for the season at large.
Defense
Penn State is one of the best teams to match up against Illinois on the defensive side of the football. Illinois has been a team that thrives on staying on schedule, playing points of conflict to determine where to go with the football, and overwhelming teams with depth. The Illinois Fighting Illini use a stable of four running backs, send out four or five different capable receivers, and a handful of tight ends on offense.
The Penn State Nittany Lions defense can wreak havoc on this Illini offense by getting them off balance early in the game. With dynamic playmakers on all three levels, they present a challenge to the Illinois offense. They might not be primed to force turnovers against this unit but they can get the offense out of rhythm. The offense can end up in situations they aren’t comfortable with and start to pressure players into taking on more responsibility.
Additional Defensive Keys
Breaking through the offensive line to create negative plays is a huge objective for the Penn State Nittany Lions defense. Illinois has a passing game that can go horizontal and vertical. If Penn State can take away the horizontal passing game and negate Altmyer’s ability to move out of the pocket, this defense can turn the game on its head and make it a lot easier for the Nittany Lions to leave 4-0.
Much like the offense, this unit has been very up and down this year. Win or lose, the country is going to find out a lot about this defense based on how they perform against this Illinois team. Heading into Big Ten play, this is the perfect time to establish a defensive identity for the Nittany Lions as they trek forward into what they hope is a long and fruitful season in the new era of the expanded CFP.
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