Opinion: Leafs’ Goaltending is Strong, but the Margins are Extremely Thin

Joe Woll is the favorite to open camp as the Leafs' No. 1 goalie.

After years of being unable to start a homegrown goaltender, the Leafs finally have one in Joseph Woll, and the hopes are high. They also signed a two-year deal with career-long backup Anthony Stolarz this summer. On paper, the goaltending situation in Toronto is the best it’s been in years.

There are three immediate questions when it comes to goaltending. Can Woll stay healthy? Can Stolarz play more than 30 games? If the Leafs need a third goalie, which they probably will, can they rely on Matt Murray?

Leafs Believe in Woll, But Can He Stay Healthy?

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For two years now fans, media, and players alike have loved what they have seen from Joseph Woll. Woll is 21-13-1 in his short career with a .912 SV% and a 2.76 GAA. In two straight seasons, Samsonov has started the playoffs, only for Woll to come in to right the ship. In seven playoff games played and four starts, he was 3-2 with a .933 SV% and a 1.78 GAA.

Yes, experience is lacking, but the 26-year-old has the maturity, the work ethic, and the poise to make up for it. The biggest, and maybe only, concern for Woll is his health. After starting the season 8-5 last season, he suffered a high-ankle sprain on Dec. 7 against Ottawa that plagued him for the rest of the campaign. Against Boston last spring, he was 2-1 with an insane .964 SV% and an even crazier 0.86 GAA before missing Game 7 with another injury.

‘I think Joe is one of the top young goaltenders in the league,’ said GM Brad Treliving of the Leafs’ netminder. ‘The biggest challenge for Joe, quite frankly, has been health. Sometimes you can’t control it. I think he’s got great technical ability, I think he’s got a great mind for the position, a great demeanor for the position, he’s athletic, he looks after himself.’

Leafs’ Stolarz is the Best Backup in the League, but Can He do More?

Statistically speaking, there is no better backup in the NHL than Anthony Stolarz. Last year with the Panthers Stolarz was 16-7-2 with a .925 SV% and a 2.03 GAA. In the last five seasons, his save percentage has been below .917 only once, which was in 22-23 on a bad Anaheim team. That same year was the only time in five seasons his GAA was above 3.00.

Not only did Stolarz have the luxury of backing up Sergei Bobrovsky, who started 58 games, but he also had the benefit of playing behind a team that had only four players who were worse than +1. Toronto’s defense has been bolstered with the signings of Tanev, Ekman-Larsson, and Hakanpaa, but Woll starting 58 games is a longshot, which means Stolarz will have to play more than he has in a single season in his career.

Final Thoughts

As previously stated, on paper this Leafs goaltending tandem is strong and really encouraging. Woll and Stolarz are both trustworthy when they are on the ice and have the belief of their teammates. Still, it’s hard to ignore the glaring unknowns heading into 2024-25. Even if Woll stays healthy, it is hard seeing him start 50 games, since he’s played 36 games in his career. With that, Stolarz started 23 games in 21-22 and 24 games in 23-24. Beyond that, the most games he’s started in a single season in 12. Can Stolarz keep up his stellar numbers if he’s counted on to start 35+ games?

That brings up to two-time Cup champion Matt Murray. The 30-year-old was 14-8-2 in his first year for the Leafs, 2022-23, before missing all of last year with an injury. The Leafs resigned him to a one-year, $875,000 contract and it’s more likely than not that they’re going to need him. He was brought to Toronto as a bit of a reclamation project after two tumultuous years in Ottawa, and they are still hoping he can find some of his Pittsburgh glory.

In Toronto, it always comes back to playoff success. Big picture, goaltending has never been the reason the Leafs don’t have that success. But, before we get to the playoffs, these questions will have to be answered. It all starts this weekend as the pre-season gets underway.

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