No. 10 Utah State is playing No. 7 UCLA in a first-round matchup in the NCAA tournament. The game will be on TNT and be broadcast from Lexington, Kentucky at 9:25 pm. The Utah State Aggies were 26-10 and finished in third place in the Mountain West conference. The UCLA Bruins were 22-10 and in fourth place in the expanded Big Ten conference. UCLA is currently a 5.5-point favorite, and most of the metrics point in the direction of the Bruins as well. They should win this matchup comfortably. Does Utah State have a chance?
Utah State Key Players
Utah State has only two players who average more than 10 points a game, but they average 80.9 points per game and have balanced scoring. The Aggie leader in points per game is Ian Martinez. Martinez is a senior guard from Heredia, Costa Rica. He is 6-foot-3 and averages 16.8 points per game. The only other player for Utah State that averages more than 10.0 points per game is Mason Falslev a 6-foot-3-inch sophomore guard who averages 14.9 points per game. Falslev is from Benson, Utah. Utah State does not have any other players who average more than 10.0 points per game, but almost half the Aggie roster, which can be found here averages more than 6.0 points per game.
The Utah State starting five includes Martinez and Falslev. Also included are Dexter Akanno, Deyton Albury, and Aubin Gateretse. Gateretse is a 6-foot-11 center from Namur, Belgium. Utah State ranks 28th in the nation in rebounding efficiency. The Bruins rank 118th. That is a big advantage for the No. 10 seed Utah State. On defensive efficiency, the Utah State ranks 137th. UCLA ranks 60th. This is an advantage for the Bruins. When you consider UCLA ranks 27th on the Ken Pom rankings and Utah State ranks 54th, this should be a comfortable victory for the Bruins.
UCLA Key Players
The Bruins have three players who average more than 10 points a game. The leading scorer for the Bruins is Tyler Bilodeau. Bilodeau is a junior forward from Kennewick, Washington. He averages 13.6 points per game. Eric
Dailey Jr. is a sophomore guard from the Palmetto, Florida. He is the second-leading scorer for UCLA at 11.6 points per game. The third-leading scorer for the Bruins is Sebastian Mack. He is a sophomore guard from Chicago, Illinois. He averages exactly 10.0 points per game.
UCLA averages almost 75 points per game, so they get balanced scoring as well. The starters for UCLA are two of those three guys, Sebastian Mack comes off the bench. The other starters for UCLA are Dylan Andrews, Skyy Clark, and Kobe Johnson. Those are all guards. UCLA does not have a center on their roster. You can view all of the statistics for UCLA here.
What Is Next?
The winner of between Utah State and UCLA will play the winner of Tennessee against Wofford. Many people have Tennessee winning the entire tournament. They are very good. They should defeat Wofford. They should move on to defeat UCLA on Sunday.
Prediction
The Bruins are 27th in the Ken Pom rankings. The Aggies rank 54th. This is a fairly sizable advantage for UCLA, so they should prevail. UCLA dominates Utah State in terms of defensive efficiency; however, the Aggies trump the Bruins in rebounding by 40 spots on the national rankings. This all adds up to a UCLA victory. Pretty comfortably, 80-70.
Conclusion
The game between the Bruins and Aggies may be a comfortable win for UCLA. At least that is the direction in which the metrics point. That said, with a second round game with Tennessee looming for whoever wins this game, the ecstasy will not last. This game may please the Bruin faithful, but they should not be happy for long.
