Elena Rybakina Beats Jessica Pegula To Advance To Australian Open Finals
If you looked away for five minutes during the second set of the Australian Open semifinal, you probably missed three different momentum shifts, a near-collapse, and enough drama to fill a prestige TV miniseries.
In the end, Elena Rybakina is heading back to the final. But getting there required navigating one of the most chaotic closing sequences of the tournament. The No. 5 seed punched her ticket to her third career Grand Slam final by holding off a furious comeback bid from Jessica Pegula, winning 6-3, 7-6(7).
The victory sets up a popcorn-worthy rematch of the 2023 Australian Open final against the world No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka. And if Saturday’s final is half as tense as the final twenty minutes of this semifinal were, tennis fans are in for a serious treat.
The Art Of the Near-Collapse (And the Recovery)
For a set and a half, this looked like routine business for Rybakina. She was crushing the ball, hitting spots, and generally making the court look very small for Pegula. But closing out a Grand Slam semifinal is never just about forehands and backhands; it’s about managing the demons in your head.
Serving for the match at 5-3 in the second, Rybakina blinked. Pegula, who has made a career out of gritty resilience, saved three match points. Then, things got weird. Rybakina served for the match again at 5-4. Broken again. She served for it a third time at 6-5. Broken again.
For Pegula, it was a heartbreak of the highest order. She was bidding to become the first woman in the Open Era to reach her first two major finals after turning 30—a testament to her late-blooming brilliance. She dragged Rybakina into deep waters, forcing a tiebreak that felt more like a coin flip than a tennis match.
Pegula even held two set points in that breaker. Had she converted one, we might still be playing. But Rybakina, often accused of being too stoic, showed exactly why that ice-cold demeanor is a superpower. She didn’t panic. She saved the set points, found her range, and closed the door with her biggest weapons: her sixth ace of the day followed immediately by a crushing return winner.
A Historic Clash Of Unbeaten Titans
Now, the narrative shifts to Saturday, and frankly, the scriptwriters couldn’t have done a better job. We are getting a replay of the 2023 final, where Sabalenka powered her way to her first major title in a three-set thriller. But there is a terrifying statistic hanging over this rematch: Neither Rybakina nor Sabalenka has dropped a single set this entire fortnight.
This is the first time since Serena and Venus Williams in 2008 (Wimbledon) that two Grand Slam finalists have arrived at the title match with spotless records. In Melbourne specifically, we haven’t seen this since Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters in 2004. It’s rare air. It means we have the two undisputed best players of the tournament colliding at peak form.
Rybakina vs. Sabalenka: The Modern Rivalry
While Sabalenka holds the overall head-to-head advantage (8-6), Rybakina has a knack for showing up when the trophy is on the line. She leads their head-to-head in finals 3-1, including a win in their most recent high-stakes meeting at the 2025 WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Sabalenka brings the fire and the noise. Rybakina brings the silent, heavy-hitting that rushes opponents into errors. Rybakina is currently on a tear that hasn’t gotten nearly enough headlines. Since losing to Sabalenka in Wuhan last October, she has won 19 of her last 20 matches. She’s won nine straight against Top 10 opponents. She might not scream after every point, but her racket is doing plenty of talking.
Come Saturday, Rod Laver Arena is going to host a slugfest. No finesse, no drop shots, just two power hitters trying to knock the fuzz off the ball. Rybakina has the memory of that 2023 loss to fuel her. She has the form. And after surviving the chaos against Pegula, she certainly has the nerves.
