The sun has barely set on the 2025 season, and while the confetti from Jesse Love’s championship celebration is still being swept up, the garage is already filled with whispers about 2026. The end of a season doesn’t mean the conversation stops. It just shifts gears. With the series getting a fresh coat of paint as the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, it feels like the perfect time to look ahead.

Connor Zilisch might be taking his prodigious talent to the Cup Series, leaving a gaping hole at the top, but this is NASCAR. The next star is always waiting in the wings, and the veterans are always hungry for another shot at glory. The Silly Season carousel is still spinning, but let’s dive into how the field is shaping up. This isn’t just a list. It’s the start of a year-long story, a first guess at who will own the narrative in 2026.

Who is the Driver to Beat in the 2026 O’Reilly Series?

Jesse Love: No. 2 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

You have to put the champ at the top, plain and simple. Jesse Love isn’t just the reigning champion. He’s the guy who proved he has the ice in his veins to seal the deal. That gutsy, championship-winning pass on Zilisch at Phoenix wasn’t just a move for the win. It was a statement.

With Zilisch gone, the target on the No. 2 car just got a whole lot bigger. The pressure to go back-to-back, a feat not seen since Tyler Reddick, will be immense. But if 2025 taught us anything, it’s that Love doesn’t just handle pressure he thrives on it.

Justin Allgaier: No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet

The ever-present contender. Even with Zilisch’s departure, JR Motorsports has Justin Allgaier as its cornerstone. The man is a statistical marvel, racking up another multi-win season and leading a jaw-dropping 1,056 laps in 2025.

Age is just a number, and as Allgaier rolls into his age-40 season, there’s no sign of him slowing down. His career is a masterclass in consistency. The only question that remains is the biggest one: can he channel that relentless performance into a second championship crown?

Austin Hill: No. 21 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

The story of Austin Hill’s 2025 is a classic tale of “what if.” He came out of the gates like a cannonball, bagging three wins early on, only to have his momentum shattered by a suspension. While he was granted a waiver and made the playoffs, the damage was done.

A sixth-place finish is respectable, but for a driver who made the Championship 4 in 2024, it felt like a step back. Hill has the speed and the aggression, but 2026 will be about harnessing it, staying out of the stewards’ office, and proving that his championship potential is still very much alive.

Which Dark Horses Could Challenge for the O’Reilly Title?

Brandon Jones: No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Returning to Joe Gibbs Racing was like coming home for Brandon Jones. The move paid immediate dividends, with Jones scoring multiple wins for the first time since 2020 and notching a career-best fifth in the final standings.

He found the consistency that had eluded him, with only one DNF all year. Now, entering his 11th full-time season, the path forward is clear: build on that momentum and fight his way into that elusive Championship 4.

Sam Mayer: No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet

Sam Mayer’s 2025 was a statistical puzzle. Only one trip to Victory Lane, yet he matched his career-best with 13 top-five finishes and posted an impressive 11.5 average finish. All signs pointed to a deep playoff run that simply never materialized.

This ended in a career-low 10th place and a suspension for the finale. Haas’s move to Chevrolet in 2026 could be the reset he needs. The talent is undeniable. 2026 is about translating that raw speed into consistent, race-winning results when it matters most.

Carson Kvapil: Ride TBD

Carson Kvapil was the breakout story of 2025. The kid came out of nowhere to force his way into the Championship 4, turning the series on its head. We know he’s going full-time racing in the O’Reilly Series in 2026 with JR Motorsports.

Therefore, even if the exact car numbers are still being sorted, that confirmation is fantastic news for fans who want to see rising talent earn their shot. He’s already a short-track ace, and a full season will be his chance to become a true, all-around threat.

Sammy Smith: No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet

Slow and steady. That’s been the mantra for Sammy Smith’s career. He’s been building year over year, with career-bests in top-fives and top-tens in 2025. The missing piece? Dominance. He needs to combine the race-leading ability he showed in 2023.

He also needs to amplify the consistency he showed in 2025. If he can put those two pieces together, he goes from a playoff contender to a genuine championship threat. Can he make it happen in 2026?

Nick Sanchez: No. 48 Big Machine Racing Chevrolet

That electrifying first win at what was then Atlanta Motor Speedway was the defining moment of Nick Sanchez’s 2025 season. It proved he has what it takes to win at this level. Now, heading into his second year with Big Machine Racing.

The goal is to make those moments more frequent. They may be a minor operation, but they punch above their weight, and with a year under their belts together, Sanchez and his team have every right to be aiming for a deep playoff run.

Sheldon Creed: No. 00 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet

The question surrounding Sheldon Creed is as simple as it is frustrating: when? After a phenomenal 2024 with 16 top-fives, everyone expected him to break through in 2025, finally. Instead, he regressed.

With 136 starts, that first win feels more elusive than ever. The manufacturer switch to Chevrolet with Haas brings a hint of familiarity, but at this point, something has to click. Time is ticking.

Harrison Burton: No. 24 Sam Hunt Racing Toyota

Harrison Burton’s return to the series was a success, dragging the No. 25 AM Racing Ford to its first-ever playoff appearance. Now, he’s on the move again, this time to Sam Hunt Racing and back into a Toyota.

Don’t forget, Burton’s career-best season came in a Toyota back in 2020, where he won four times. This reunion could be the spark he needs to get back to Victory Lane and re-establish himself as a top-tier driver in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series.

---