You draft well, you develop talent, and you win games. But eventually, the bill comes due. For the Denver Nuggets, that bill has a name. It’s Peyton Watson.

As Watson blossoms into a legitimate two-way force during a critical contract year, the Nuggets are facing a brutal financial reality: they almost certainly cannot afford to keep him.

The explosive rise of Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson is having the kind of season that gets players paid. With teammates Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun dealing with injuries, the 23-year-old was thrust into a larger role, and he didn’t just survive; he thrived. Through 25 games, Watson is averaging 10.5 points and 4.8 rebounds, shooting a clean 50.3% from the field and—crucially—39.1% from three-point range.

If you watch the Nuggets nightly, you see the energy shift when he’s on the floor. He’s a chaos engine on defense, switching onto guards, protecting the rim, and blowing up passing lanes. In a league desperate for long, athletic wings who can shoot the three and defend multiple positions.

Why the Nuggets didn’t extend him (and why it might cost them)

To understand why Denver is in this mess, we have to look back at the offseason. The Nuggets inked Christian Braun to a massive five-year, $125 million extension. It was a commitment to their core. But when it came to Peyton Watson, the front office hit pause.

They didn’t reach an agreement before the rookie-scale extension deadline. This wasn’t necessarily because they didn’t believe in him, but rather a maneuver to avoid the dreaded “poison pill” provision that complicates trades and cap flexibility.

The second apron nightmare

According to recent reports from The Denver Post, the league-wide consensus is shifting. Sources indicate it is increasingly unlikely that Peyton Watson will be in Denver’s price range come summer.

The Nuggets are already hamstrung by the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). They are a second-apron team, meaning they face severe penalties for spending. Retaining Watson would almost certainly require going deep into the luxury tax.

Because he will be a restricted free agent, Denver technically has the right to match any offer sheet Watson signs with another team. But that right is often theoretical. If a team with cap space—say, a rebuilding squad needing a defensive anchor—throws a massive, front-loaded offer at Watson, Denver simply cannot match it without blowing up their entire financial structure.

Is Peyton Watson the next Bruce Brown?

Nuggets fans have seen this movie before. Remember Bruce Brown? He was the heart and soul of the championship bench unit. He wanted to stay. Denver wanted him to stay. But the Pacers threw a bag at him that Denver mathematically couldn’t match, and he was gone.

Like Brown, Peyton Watson provides the grit and versatility that championships are built on. Like Brown, he is playing himself into a tax bracket that the Nuggets, top-heavy with max contracts for Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr., simply cannot access.

You cannot keep everyone. Denver chose Braun as the long-term piece, and in doing so, they likely put an expiration date on Watson’s tenure in the Mile High City.