Can the Seattle Mariners Overcome Less Power and Still Win In 2026?
The Seattle Mariners are heading into Spring Training with a roster that looks oddly familiar—and that’s actually a good thing. After their deepest playoff run in franchise history last season, the M’s are bringing back most of the squad that got them there. But here’s the twist: they’re going to have to do it with less pop in the lineup.
Last year, Seattle’s offense was built on the long ball. Their 238 home runs ranked third in baseball, propping up a lineup that otherwise struggled to manufacture runs consistently. They finished ninth in runs scored despite having the fifth-worst batting average with runners in scoring position. Translation? When the Mariners didn’t go yard, they often went home empty-handed.
Now, with Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez signing elsewhere during the offseason, the Mariners have lost 39 home runs. Add in the likelihood that Cal Raleigh won’t replicate his otherworldly 60-homer campaign, and you’ve got a legitimate question: How does this team score runs in 2026?
A Different Kind Of Offense
The answer might not involve replacing those home runs at all. Instead, the Mariners appear to be pivoting toward a more contact-oriented, on-base-focused approach. It’s a philosophy that worked for teams like the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays last season, both of whom won with strong pitching and consistent hitting rather than relying solely on the long ball.
“I don’t know that they necessarily replace production in that sense of home runs, but it feels like this is going to be a team that’s going to be more of an on-base team, maybe a more gap-to-gap team where one through five in the order, on paper, looks really good,” said Bob Stelton, co-host of Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob.
The key addition here is Brendan Donovan, acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals on February 2. The 29-year-old first-time All-Star is everything Seattle’s lineup wasn’t in 2025: disciplined, consistent, and tough to strike out.
Last season, Donovan hit .287 with a .353 on-base percentage and posted just a 13.0% strikeout rate. Compare that to what Seattle got from third base last year (26.2% strikeout rate, .299 OBP), and you can see why General Manager Jerry Dipoto pulled the trigger on this deal.
More Contact, More Consistency
Donovan isn’t the only reason for optimism. The Mariners will also get a full season of Josh Naylor at first base. After arriving from Arizona in a late-July trade, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.831 with 9 homers and just a 16.9% strikeout rate in Seattle. Before he showed up, Mariners first basemen had the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.9%), eighth-worst batting average (.234), and seventh-worst on-base percentage (.297) in baseball.
Having Naylor in the lineup from Opening Day should provide some much-needed stability and another bat that won’t swing and miss at everything. Pair him with Donovan at the top of the order, and suddenly the Mariners have a foundation that can set the table for J-Rod, Raleigh, and the rest of the power threats.
Right Field Stability Could Be the Secret Weapon
One underrated area where Seattle could see major improvement? Right field. Last year was a disaster in that corner outfield spot. Opening day starter Victor Robles fractured his shoulder on the first road trip and missed nearly five months. Luke Raley, who had a breakout 22-homer season in 2024, suffered an oblique strain in late April and was never the same, finishing with just four homers in 73 games. In between, Leody Tavares filled in and was absolutely brutal at the plate.
Eventually, Dominic Canzone provided some solid production, but by then, the damage was done. The revolving door in right field created a black hole in the lineup for stretches.
If Raley can bounce back to his 2024 form—and that’s a reasonable expectation given that injuries derailed his 2025—the Mariners could have another source of consistent production. He’s not a star, but he’s capable of doing far more damage than he showed last year.
The Pitching Staff Still Does the Heavy Lifting
The Mariners don’t need to be an offensive juggernaut to win the AL West. Their pitching staff is still one of the best in baseball, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
DraftKings has Seattle’s win total set at 89.5 for good reason. Luis Castillo, at 33, is the oldest starter in the rotation. Everyone else—Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo—is under 30. The staff posted a 3.87 ERA last season, which was somehow only 13th in baseball. With better run support and some regression to the mean, that number could easily drop.
The challenge will be health and consistency. None of Seattle’s starters threw 200 innings last year, and guys like Miller and Kirby are coming off down seasons. But if the young arms can stay healthy and take a step forward, this pitching staff could carry the Mariners deep into October again.
Can They Actually Win It All?
The talent is there. The pitching is elite. The lineup, while less reliant on home runs, should be more balanced and harder to shut down over a seven-game series. And the AL West? It’s Seattle’s to lose.
The competition just isn’t there. The Athletics are rebuilding. The Angels are in purgatory. The Rangers are aging. The Astros are… well, they’re still the Astros, but they’re not the juggernaut they once were.
But here’s the thing: The Mariners have never been to a World Series. Not once in franchise history. They held a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the ALCS last season and watched it slip away on a George Springer three-run bomb. That kind of heartbreak either destroys you or fuels you.
Which version of the Mariners shows up in 2026 could determine whether this is finally the year they break the curse—or if they’re destined to keep sailing close to glory without ever reaching shore.
