The Science Behind Gunnar Henderson’s Red-Hot 2026 Start
Baltimore Orioles Shortstop Gunnar Henderson has been one of the best hitters in the league so far this season and one of the most consistent RBI producers in the early MLB season, thus far, as he has knocked in 11 RBIs so far this season.
He has also tied for the most home runs right now in baseball with five home runs after a two-run blast in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants in the first game of the series on Friday night. It is interesting to look at how Henderson performed in the WBC, how it has translated to his 2026 season so far, and how he could be a sleeper in the AL MVP discussions this season.
Gunnar Henderson’s 2026 WBC Run and How They Have Translated to the MLB Season
His 2026 WBC numbers were astronomical as a whole, a .400 average, with two home runs, four RBIs, and a 1.267 OPS in the four games he suited up for the red, white, and blue. It made O’s fans like me ask the question, why did Gunnar Henderson not get more run during the WBC if he was hitting like that consistently? But I digress because we are in the MLB season now, and Henderson is still transitioning those power numbers from Team USA to the O’s so far in 2026.
As I mentioned in the intro, the Orioles shortstop is tied for the most home runs in baseball heading into Saturday’s play. But there’s an interesting aspect to Henderson being at five home runs: it was the 13th game of the season for the Orioles, and the shortstop hit his fifth home run in his 13th game, making it the fastest Henderson reached the five-home-run mark to start.
The fastest that he had before was his 2024 season, where he hit 37 home runs. Here’s a tweet with the full context of Henderson’s career reaching the five home run mark, with the exact date each year of his career that he reached the mark.
Here’s a look at his Advanced Metrics As Well
The first advanced metric that jumps off the page thus far is the current OPS+; right now, he has a 172 OPS+, which would be above his best season in 2024 if the season were finished today, as he is on a pace that would put him in the MVP race with the likes of Aaron Judge and a couple of others in 2026 season.
Another Advanced metric that might counter my argument is a higher strikeout percentage, as his strikeout percentage is currently at 27.9% right now, which would be his highest in his career if that continued the rest of 2026. But most of the other advanced metrics are on pace to be a career best if he can keep up the pace that he’s on right now. With that being said, this is a prime opportunity for Gunnar Henderson to continue to make an impact on the season and keep up with his comes to his contract negotiations with the Orioles organization.
What Does This Start Mean For The Extension Talks
Henderson is in the midst of some possible extension talks with Mike Elias and the rest of the Orioles front office at the moment, meaning the possibility that this start is going to only raise the price exponentially at the current moment in time, meaning that Baltimore is going to have pay that piper soon because he should be an Oriole for life like Cal Ripken Jr was because he has the potential to be one of the franchises GOATs.
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