Kyle Tucker Sweepstakes: Why the Mets Can’t Let the Blue Jays Win This One

If there is one thing baseball fans have learned by 2026, it is that trying to predict the New York Mets’ offseason strategy is like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. It’s messy, confusing, and usually ends with someone yelling.

Here we are, staring down the barrel of another season. The Mets have watched franchise cornerstones like Pete Alonso walk out the door to Baltimore (ouch), Edwin Diaz wave goodbye, and Brandon Nimmo pack his bags. The roster is looking a little… different. Sure, they brought in Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco, but let’s be real: that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire when you look at what was lost.

Enter Kyle Tucker. The man is sitting right there in free agency, staring at his phone, waiting for the right number to pop up. And frankly, it is baffling that he isn’t already wearing orange and blue.

The Blue Jays Are Lurking, But Are They Serious?

Right now, the rumor mill—specifically, folks like The Athletic’s Will Sammon—suggests that while Tucker is the absolute “crown jewel” of this class, he might have better options than Queens. The Toronto Blue Jays are making a serious push. And honestly, on paper, maybe Toronto looks like the “smarter” fit for a guy wanting stability.

Ben Nicholson-Smith over at Sportsnet even noted that Toronto looked like the front-runner for a long time. They’ve already thrown cash at Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto. They are trying to build something. But let’s be honest with ourselves: The Mets are the Mets. They don’t operate on “smart” or “stable.” They operate on the principle of “We have the richest owner in the sport, so why are we starting Tyrone Taylor in the outfield?”

That isn’t a knock on Taylor, but when you are a big-market team, your outfield depth chart shouldn’t look like a Triple-A call-up list. The Mets have a massive hole to fill, and letting Toronto—a team that historically loves to almost-sign superstars—outbid them for Tucker would be a tough pill for the Flushing faithful to swallow.

The Juan Soto Paradox

Here is where things get really weird, and where the frustration for Mets fans boils over. We are living in a timeline where the Mets reportedly dropped a staggering $765 million on Juan Soto (according to Matt Vasgersian’s rant on MLB Network).

If you already spent the GDP of a small island nation on Soto, why are you suddenly clutching pearls over Kyle Tucker?

Vasgersian hit the nail on the head when he basically asked, “What are we doing here?” You don’t buy a Ferrari and then refuse to pay for premium gas. You spent “dumb money” (Vasgersian’s words, not mine) to secure Soto. You can’t just stop halfway through the renovation. If the goal is to win, you pair Soto with Tucker and you terrify every pitcher in the National League. If the goal is to save money… well, you already failed at that with the Soto contract, so you might as well lean into the skid.

It makes zero sense to secure Soto and then surround him with question marks because you got shy about the luxury tax.

The Injury Elephant in the Room

Of course, we have to address the reason Tucker is still available this late in the game. It’s the injury history. The guy missed 110 games over the last two seasons. He played with a hairline fracture in his hand for the Cubs last year, and his numbers took a nosedive because of it. He went from an OPS monster to a guy struggling to stay above .830.

That scares front offices. It scares the Blue Jays, and it clearly scares the Mets. Harold Reynolds mentioned that teams are terrified of committing $500 million to a guy who might spend half the season on the IL. And that’s fair. It’s a gamble.

But here is the reality of free agency: Scared money doesn’t win World Series rings.

Why the Mets Need to Just Do It

At this point, it feels like a game of chicken. Tucker’s camp wants the moon; teams are offering a deeply discounted Groupon rate because of his health.

But look at the Mets’ projected outfield. Look at it. They have Carson Benge penciled in as a starter. No disrespect to the kid, but are we serious? If you are Steve Cohen, and you are looking at a lineup that lost the Polar Bear Pete Alonso, you need impactful bats. You need someone who, when healthy, plays at an MVP level.

Erik Kratz on Foul Territory made a great point: Tucker, even with the risk, makes the lineup infinitely better than any other option currently on the board. He is a better offensive contributor than almost anyone else available.

The Mets have the resources. They have the need. They have the “lurk” factor, as Sammon put it—that ability to swoop in at the last second when the market crashes and scoop up a star on a high-AAV, short-term deal.

If Tucker is willing to take a shorter deal with higher annual money to prove his health? That is the Cohen special. The Mets need to stop staring at the Blue Jays, stop worrying about the luxury tax they already blew past, and put the pen to paper. Otherwise, 2026 is going to be a long, long season of “what ifs.”