Will The Pesky Tampa Bay Rays Make the Playoffs In 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays had a tough 2025 season, finishing at 77-85. That record was only good for fourth place in a difficult American League East division and left the team without a postseason berth. Tampa Bay has missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and is a shell of the 2023 iteration that was one win shy of its second 100-win season in franchise history.

Looking at the roster, there is no reason to suggest that the 2026 Rays will fare any differently than the teams of the previous two seasons. They dealt two of their key hitters in Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe. While the additions of Cedric Mullins, Steven Matz, and Nick Martinez are quality moves, you still have to question if these will lead to the squad reaching the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays Offense: Some Nice Pieces On An Underrated Lineup

Tampa, as an offense, had a pretty good season, especially for its standards. It ranked in the top 10 in batting average (8th – .251) and hits (9th – 1,374), while posting middle-of-the-pack numbers in OPS (14th – .714) and runs (15th – 714). However, this was a team that liked to force the issue, leading the major leagues in stolen bases (194). The 194 swiped bags were 30 more than the second-place team, the Milwaukee Brewers.

The offensive output did not come out of nowhere; the Rays do have some pieces on offense that will be the reason why they win games. The obvious and biggest is 22-year-old slugger Junior Caminero, who blasted a staggering 45 home runs to go along with 110 RBI. It was a stellar season for the third baseman, one that Caminero will have to come close to repeating for the offense to take off.

Jonathan Aranda had a career year of his own. Aranda was mostly a bench player for his first few seasons with the Rays, but he received an increased workload in 2025. The results were excellent for the first baseman: .316 BA, 14 HR, 59 RBI. If it were not for Aranda being sidelined for most of the second half of last season with a fractured left wrist, the numbers would have been even more eye-popping. Look for Aranda to build on last season.

Lastly, Yandy Díaz blasted a personal-best 25 home runs and drove in a career-high 83 RBI. His 150 games played in 2025 were also the most for Díaz in a single season. The designated hitter has steadily become the Rays’ most dependable player, and there is little to suggest that will change this year.

The stolen bases department is one aspect of the offense that could see a regression. Left Fielder Chandler Wilson remains with the Rays and swiped a team-high 44 bases. Mullins has made a living stealing bases as well. However, that is where things end. Jake Mangum (27 SB) was traded to the Chicago White Sox along with Josh Lowe (18 SB).

Jose Caballero had 34 stolen bases for the Rays before being dealt to AL East-rival New York Yankees in the middle of last season. Somebody on the roster will have to fill the void vacated by these players.

Rays’ Starting Pitching Depth Is Questionable Beyond Two Guys

While the offense was sneakily more than adequate, the pitching is really what won them games in 2025. Drew Rasmussen notched another ace-like year to the tune of a 2.76 ERA and a pitching WAR of a career-high 4.5. Rasmussen also made 31 starts for the first time in his career, further solidifying his status as the unquestioned leader of this starting pitching staff.

Ryan Pepiot should fill in as the No. 2 option for the Rays. Since coming over from the Dodgers, Pepiot has posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA below 4.00, and he led the team in wins last season. This is not a horrible one-two punch for Tampa Bay, but who will fill out the starting staff?

The Rays are hoping to have Shane McClanahan back in form. McClanahan has not pitched since 2023 because of Tommy John surgery and suffering a nerve injury in his left triceps. Before these injuries, the lefty was simply one of the best starters in the AL. But can he regain his form after years of trying to rejoin his squad? Still just 28 years old, McClanahan has youth on his side.

Matz has starting experience, but he has been working exclusively as a middle reliever for the past few seasons. The last time Matz was called upon to make 20 starts or more was in 2021 for the Toronto Blue Jays, where he made 29 starts. Since then, Matz has not made more than 17 starts. The 2023 season was the most recent season in which he eclipsed 100 innings pitched. So safe to say, Tampa Bay will have to manage Matz’s innings count.

To fill out the rotation is expected to be Martinez, whom the team signed last month as a free agent. Martinez made a career-high 26 starts for the Cincinnati Reds (40 appearances). As a starting pitcher, Martinez had a 4.65 ERA but was then relegated to relief duty after Aug. 26 of last season. One has to question whether he can fill in as the presumed No. 5 starter.

Final Prediction

The Rays have a bunch going for themselves and did attempt to fill the holes vacated by key players from last season. Caminero is a budding superstar who could be a great player for years to come. Ditto for Rasmussen. Furthermore, if some players on the roster can regain their form, this squad has the makings of one that can compete for a playoff berth.

While I do anticipate the pesky Rays to be difficult to defeat, ultimately, there are too many questions that still do not have answers on this team. I have them missing the postseason for the third straight season.

Prediction: 82-80, no playoffs