Giolito Gaining Interest From Two MLB Clubs
Lucas Giolito has become the rare mid‑April free agent who feels less like a leftover and more like a pressure valve. Two National League contenders—the Cubs and Padres—have moved to the front of the line, each dealing with rotation problems that have forced them into the market earlier than expected.
The 31‑year‑old right‑hander remains unsigned not because of a lack of interest, but because he believes the offers he’s received haven’t matched his value. He’s said as much publicly, and teams know he’s been throwing regularly to stay close to game‑ready.
Cubs Looking for Stability After Early‑Season Blows
Chicago’s rotation has taken multiple hits in a short span. Cade Horton, the club’s top pitching prospect, is out for the season after UCL surgery. Matthew Boyd landed on the injured list with a biceps strain. That’s a lot of innings erased before the Cubs even settle into the schedule.
This is why Giolito fits their needs. The Cubs don’t need him to be the borderline ace he was from 2019–21. They need someone who can take the ball every fifth day and keep the bullpen from drowning. His 2025 surface numbers with Boston—145 innings and a 3.41 ERA—show he can still provide volume. But the underlying metrics tell a more complicated story: a 19.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, and ERA estimators (4.17 FIP, 4.65 SIERA) that suggest he outperformed his peripherals.
Even with that risk, the Cubs’ situation makes Giolito a logical target. They need innings, and they need them now.
Padres Enter the Mix as Pivetta Injury Raises Alarms
San Diego’s interest mirrors Chicago’s. Nick Pivetta, their de facto ace, left a recent start with elbow stiffness, and the club is bracing for the possibility he’ll need time on the injured list. That alone puts pressure on the Padres to find a veteran who can stabilize the rotation.
The Padres made the postseason in 2025 and expect to contend again, but their margin for error is thinner this year. Their ownership transition and financial constraints could complicate negotiations, but the need is real. Giolito offers more upside than their internal depth options, and he’s already throwing regularly at Cressey Performance in Florida to stay sharp.
Why Giolito Is Still Unsigned
Giolito has been open about why he’s still on the market. He told the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast that he’s had conversations with teams, but the offers haven’t matched what he believes is fair. He emphasized that teams and agencies rely heavily on projection models, and he wants a deal that reflects those same models.
He’s coming off a strong surface‑level season, but teams are weighing that against his recent history. After being a borderline ace from 2019–21, his ERA ballooned in 2022 and 2023, and he missed all of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery. That combination—good recent results but concerning trends—has created a standoff over value.
Still, he’s the last remaining member of MLB Trade Rumors’ preseason Top 50 free agents who hasn’t signed, and he’s the only one who can realistically step into a rotation immediately.
Why Cubs and Padres Make the Most Sense
Both teams are dealing with rotation injuries. Both teams have postseason aspirations. And both teams have enough flexibility to make a short‑term deal work if the price aligns with their risk tolerance.
For the Cubs, the need is immediate and unavoidable. For the Padres, the need is tied to Pivetta’s health and the uncertainty surrounding their ownership situation. But in both cases, Giolito represents the best available solution.
Other clubs—like the Astros, Orioles, and Reds—are monitoring the situation, but Chicago and San Diego have the clearest path and the most pressing need.
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