The Duke Blue Devils face the Baylor Bears in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament. The game is for a birth in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke is the last team standing from the traditional power Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Duke is 32-3, 10-2 against non-conference opponents like Baylor. Baylor is 20-14 and was just 11-11 in Big 12 play.
The Blue Devils destroyed Mount St. Mary’s 93-49 to reach this game. Baylor squeaked by Mississippi State 75-72 to make this game. Duke has been rolling over opponents, and it seems freshman sensation Cooper Flagg is healthy. Do you think with a healthy Flagg Duke will romp again?
Duke’s Keys to Victory
Duke has been destroying opponents. It was no different in the opening round. The first key to victory for the Blue Devils is the health of national player of the year candidate Flagg. He seemed healthy and said he “felt fine.” He twisted his ankle in the ACC Tournament. He was in a wheelchair on his way for X-rays in the locker room. As he goes, so goes the team.
Second, Duke hit 14 three-pointers in their victory over Mount Saint Mary’s. They were 14-of-37 (37.8 %). To prevail against Baylor, they need to make about the same number of triples. The Blue Devils have several players who like to take three-point shots. Those players need to shoot well from distance.
A third key to victory for the team in this matchup with the Baylor Bears is similar to the second key. The Blue Devils need to shoot well from the field. In their 1st round win, they were 35-of-70 from the field. That is exactly 50%. The Blue Devils shot 48.8% from the field during the regular season. The Blue Devils ranked first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They just need to be themselves to hit this key.
Baylor’s Keys to Victory
Baylor faces a tough game against Duke, particularly if Flagg is healthy. To win this game they must do the things that are necessary to win basketball games. First, Baylor must rebound well. Duke does not miss many shots, so there will not be that many opportunities for offensive rebounds. Nevertheless, the Bears must rebound on both ends of the floor.
The second key to victory in this 2nd round game for Baylor is they must play good defense. That will be a challenge for Baylor in this game. They rank 143rd in defensive efficiency. Duke was third. The Bears must guard closely and get their hands up to win this game.
The third key to victory for the Baylor Bears is that they must shoot a high percentage to succeed. They shot 44.8% from the field in the regular season and must shoot about ten points higher in this game to win it. Making shots is very important for them in this matchup.
What Is Next?
The winner of this game will advance to the Sweet Sixteen to face the winner of the Oregon-Arizona. Those are evenly matched teams. Either team could emerge victorious.
Prediction
The Blue Devils were 1st in the Ken Pom rankings. The Baylor Bears ranked 29th. Duke should dominate on Sunday. That is why the Blue Devils are 11.5-point favorites. If Duke is itself a good shooting and efficient team, and Flagg is healthy, Duke should win.
Conclusion
The Blue Devils are hot. They are 10-0 in their last 10 games. They are averaging 88.0 points, 36.9 rebounds, 17.3 assists, 6.8 steals, and 4.6 blocks per game while shooting 49.8% from the field. They are holding their opponents to 63.5 points per game. Baylor is just 5-5 in their last 10 games. This too points to a Duke victory in this 2nd Round NCAA Tournament game.
