The 2025 Heisman Race: A Coronation In NYC Or a Shock For the Ages?

The suits are pressed, the flights to New York City are booked, and the heavy bronze statue is currently being polished for its next owner. We’ve finally got our four finalists for the 2025 Heisman Trophy, revealed under the bright lights of ESPN, and let’s be honest: this year feels less like a horse race and more like a victory lap for one specific quarterback.

But that’s the beauty of college football, right? We love the pageantry, the arguments, and the sheer audacity of 20-year-olds carrying the weight of entire university programs on their shoulder pads.

This Saturday, four young men will sit in Lincoln Center, trying not to look too nervous while waiting for their name to be called. And while the oddsmakers seem to think the ink is already dry on the envelope, there is plenty of emotion and story packed into this quartet.

The Undefeated Hoosier: Fernando Mendoza’s Historic Run

If you had told me three years ago that an Indiana quarterback would be the overwhelming favorite (-2000!) to win the Heisman, I would have asked you what kind of alternate reality simulation you were living in. Indiana is a basketball school, right? Or at least, it was until Curt Cignetti walked in and decided losing was out of style.

Fernando Mendoza isn’t just a Heisman finalist; he’s the engine behind a miracle. Leading the Hoosiers to a perfect 13-0 regular season and a Big Ten Championship, their first since 1967, is the stuff of Disney movies. He threw for 33 touchdowns, completed passes at a clip that would make a frantic video gamer jealous (71.5%), and secured the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

Vegas knows it. The voters know it. Mendoza has seemingly done the impossible: he made us all fear the football team from Bloomington.

The People’s Champ: Diego Pavia’s Swagger

Then there is Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. If the Heisman was awarded based on “dawg mentality” and pure entertainment value, Pavia would win in a landslide. Sitting at +900 odds, he’s the clear underdog, but man, has he been fun to watch.

This is a guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder the size of a boulder. He led Vandy to a 10-win season. He took down the giants. And let’s not forget the moment of the year: striking the Heisman pose after scoring against Tennessee. You have to respect the audacity.

While the losses to Alabama and Texas likely sealed his fate as the runner-up, Pavia is the emotional heartbeat of the 2025 season. He threw for over 3,000 yards, ran for another 800+, and generally refused to let the Commodores be the SEC’s punching bag. He might not leave NYC with the trophy, but he’s leaving with everyone’s respect.

The Lonely Running Back: Jeremiyah Love

Spare a thought for Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love. In an era where quarterbacks hoard this trophy like dragons hoarding gold, Love managed to crack the finalist list as a running back. That alone is an achievement worth celebrating.

Love (+15,000) was a terror on the ground, ranking third nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns. He is arguably the most talented pure athlete in the group. But timing is everything in sports, and Notre Dame getting booted from the College Football Playoff field essentially popped the balloon on his Heisman hopes. It’s a cruel twist for a guy who put up video game numbers, but without the playoff spotlight, he’s likely enjoying a nice dinner in New York rather than preparing an acceptance speech.

The Freshman Phenom: Julian Sayin

Finally, we have Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. At one point, he looked like he might actually steal this thing. He leads the FBS in completion percentage and QB rating. On paper, he is surgical.

But the Heisman is a “what have you done for me lately” award, and Sayin’s recent performance in the Big Ten Championship loss to Mendoza’s Indiana was… well, let’s just call it a “learning experience.” He tanked in the odds (falling to +50,000), becoming the longest of longshots. Still, getting to NYC as a freshman is a massive signal for the future. He’ll be back.

Betting Analysis: Is There Any Value Left?

Look, I’m not here to tell you how to spend your money, but the books are telling a clear story.

• Fernando Mendoza (-2000): This is betting on the sun to rise in the east. The return is minimal because the outcome feels inevitable.
• Diego Pavia (+900): This is the “I believe in miracles” ticket.
• Love & Sayin: These are lottery tickets that have likely already expired.

Come Saturday night, we expect to see crimson confetti for the Hoosiers. But regardless of who lifts the 45-pound trophy, this group represents a season where the traditional powers got shook, the underdogs bit back, and Indiana—yes, Indiana—became the center of the college football universe.