Chicago Cubs: Evaluating the Kyle Tucker Trade

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs traded for three-time All-Star Outfielder Kyle Tucker earlier this month in a move that signifies a shift in organizational direction for the team. Tucker, one of the most prolific sluggers in the game, comes to Chicago after a great start to his career in Houston with the Astros. The World Series champion will be tasked with leading the charge for Chicago for at least one year as they look for their next great team. The decision to bring in Tucker on a one-year rental before he hits free agency has gotten mixed reviews, especially when it cost the Cubs their first-round draft pick Cam Smith to make the deal happen.

Kyle Tucker isn’t the only person on the north side of Chicago who is entering the final year of his contract. Jed Hoyer is coming into 2025 as a lame-duck executive. The Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations has been underwhelming as the top decision-maker with the team posting back-to-back 83-win seasons in years that were expected to yield postseason berths.

The rebuild that Hoyer initiated when he took over baseball operations has taken longer to come back from than fans expected creating pressure on the front office that might explain the decision to trade for Kyle Tucker. This is a deal that comes with inherent risk after 2025 due to Tucker’s free agency.

Chicago Cubs Add Young Superstar

A pair of baseball’s top left-handed sluggers are going to be in new places in 2025. Juan Soto signed his mega-deal with the New York Mets. The 26-year-old is connected to Queens for the next 15 years, deciding to sign Soto more palatable for a Mets team that just reached the NLCS. The other top left-handed slugger finding himself in a new situation in 2025 is Kyle Tucker. Tucker was traded earlier this month to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a pair of major leaguers and a top prospect, moving the 27-year-old from one of baseball’s perennial contenders to a team trying to climb back into the postseason.

The Houston Astros followed the Chicago Cubs in MLB’s lineage of great, young teams built around dynamic sluggers a decade ago. The Cubs won the World Series in 2016 never to make it back. The Astros won it in 2017 but were able to replicate their success and make it to six consecutive ALCS. A huge reason for Houston’s consistency was their ability to replenish their major league roster with talent in the farm system. Much of that talent came in the form of Kyle Tucker.

Tucker made his debut in 2018 with Houston but hit his stride in 2020, and has been a force in the Astros lineup ever since. He has made three All-Star teams, won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, and finished in the top five in AL MVP voting in 2022. As Houston’s roster continues to turn over, and they need to create new opportunities to stay in contention, moving Tucker with a year left on his deal made sense for the Astros. Now Tucker finds himself on a roster that is also in flux with 2025 being a crucial year for him and the future of the Chicago Cubs.

Jed Hoyer Going For the Gusto

Kyle Tucker was having arguably the best season of his career in 2024 before being sidelined with a shin injury that limited him to 78 games. He was hitting .289 with 23 home runs 49 RBI and a .408 on-base percentage before going to the shelf. Tucker is fully healthy now and poised for 2025, his final year before reaching free agency. With Juan Soto signing for a whopping $765 million earlier this offseason, Tucker is seeing the market for outfield sluggers rise.

Chicago is going to wait until next winter to commit long-term, making it a risky move by the front office to give up three assets to bring him in. Chicago Cubs General Manager Carter Hawkins said of the move,We made this deal kind of understanding that this deal had to be worth it for one year of Kyle Tucker. And we certainly felt like that was the case.”

In exchange for Tucker, the Chicago Cubs sent Third Baseman Isaac Paredes, Pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and Infielder prospect Cam Smith to the Astros. Paredes was Chicago’s trade deadline acquisition of 2024 after a stellar start to the season in Tampa Bay. Paredes cooled off considerably in the second half with the Cubs. Wesneski has bounced around during his time with the Chicago Cubs organization. After he was acquired in a deadline deal with the New York Yankees in exchange for Scott Effross in 2022, Wesneski has bounced between the starting rotation, bullpen, injured list, and minor leagues.

Smith was one of the fastest-rising prospects in the Cubs minor league system after he was drafted in the first round of this year’s MLB Draft. The major league talent is solid and has some upside with Paredes and Wesneski, but Smith is the biggest chip heading to Houston in this deal.

The willingness to include Smith in this deal indicates that Jed Hoyer is starting to feel the pressure. Hoyer has largely failed in his tenure as President of Baseball Operations with the Chicago Cubs and as his final year at the helm gets ready to begin, he’s pushing his chips to the middle of the table with the acquisition of Tucker. With no extension looming for Tucker and the inclusion of Cam Smith in the deal, it is clear that this is a transaction exclusively for the 2025 season.

After back-to-back 83-79 seasons, the postseason is the floor for Hoyer to retain his job, and even that might be enough. For the time being, the acquisition of one of the league’s best sluggers is the crown jewel of the Chicago Cubs offseason, but with a powerful executive in dire straits, there might be more aggressive moves out there to be made before spring training.

Final Thoughts

Bringing Kyle Tucker in is in it of itself a great move for the Chicago Cubs. He is one of the best sluggers in baseball and in a contract year, he projects to be in the conversation for NL MVP. But that’s just it: it’s a contract year. The bidding war for Kyle Tucker will be fierce next winter and the Cubs are almost guaranteed to not come out on top, meaning that they traded their first-round draft pick and two viable major leaguers for one year of Kyle Tucker.

I understand the rush for Jed Hoyer to make this deal, but it might come back to bite him if Tucker has a poor or unhealthy year, or if the Astros are able to turn Wesneski and Paredes into big contributors for their 2025 team.

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