When opposing teams face the Arkansas Razorbacks, they better pack a lunch or dinner depending on the time of the game, given that the Hogs will play them tough for four quarters or more. Although most consider an unranked Arkansas team defeating the then No. 4 (and now No. 8) Tennessee Volunteers 19-14 in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on October 5, 2024, an “upset,” and by the standards of most traditional, commonly accepted definitions, it is an upset, those who love and study sports data are not surprised by the Razorbacks’ win.
Arkansas matches up well against anyone in the country and could be undefeated had the team not made crushing mistakes at critical moments on the road at Oklahoma State and at AT&T Stadium against Texas A&M; both were one-possession losses. As previously mentioned, the data evidences that the Hogs are one of the best teams in the nation.
This article contributes to the critical discourse about the Arkansas Razorbacks, especially after their signature win against the Volunteers. It offers data and analysis that underscore why the Hogs are one of the best teams in the nation and why the win against Tennessee should not be as shocking as most view it.
Time of Possession
The Arkansas Razorbacks decisively won the time-of-possession battle against the Tennessee Volunteers. According to ESPN, the Hogs had the ball for 35 minutes and 29 seconds, while the Volunteers had it for only 24 minutes and 31 seconds. Therefore, Arkansas possessed the ball for 10 minutes and 58 seconds longer than Tennessee. The Razorbacks only punted three times against the Volunteers. Bobby Petrino’s offense imposed significant pressure on Tennessee’s defense, forcing it to consume much energy the entire game.
When a defense remains on the field as long as the Volunteers did, it will inevitably tire and not perform at its maximum capability. The Razorbacks’ offense, therefore, has done its defense crucial favors all season. According to the NCAA, Arkansas ranks 13th in the nation and 2nd in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) for time of possession. Although time of possession is not the most discussed statistic, it matters, and it is one primary reason the Hogs are performing so well this season. Arkansas is 4-2 (2-1 SEC).
Third Down Conversion Percentage
According to the NCAA, the Razorbacks are ranked 8th in the nation and 1st in the SEC in third-down conversion percentage: In six games, Arkansas has converted on 47 of its 89 third-down attempts, which means the team has converted 52.8% of its attempts. With such success on third down, one can see why the Hogs are one of the nation’s leaders in time of possession and why they have such a potent offense. Defenses are not experiencing much success stopping the Razorbacks on third down. That is a vital ingredient of an elite offense.
First Down Offense
One of the core reasons Arkansas is so effective on third down is its performance on first down. The NCAA revealed that the Hogs rank third in the nation and first in the SEC for first-down offense. Therefore, the Razorbacks are not wasting their opportunities to make something happen on first down, which often places them in excellent shape to have rewarding offensive drives. Much of that success on first down can be attributed to their rushing offense, which ranks 29th in the nation and 4th in the SEC.
Arkansas Total Offense
The Razorbacks rank 12th in the nation and 4th in the SEC in total offense, averaging 484.8 yards per game and 6.39 yards per play. Bobby Petrino still does not have starting quarterback Taylen Green where he desires him to be and an offensive line that consistently provides protection. One can only imagine how even more explosive this offense will be if those two dimensions of the offense improve.
Razorbacks on Defense
Since he arrived in Fayetteville, Arkansas, defensive coordinator Travis Williams has done a phenomenal job. Williams’ defensive masterclass against Tennessee earned him high praise from ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit, as Arkansas Razorbacks beat writer at Sports Illustrated Jacob Davis reported. His defense is ranked 33rd in the nation and 9th in the SEC, with opponents being held to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. Such third-down defensive efficacy is an essential ingredient of an elite defense.
The Razorbacks rank 50th in the nation for fourth-down defense and sixth in the SEC. The Hogs are tied for 46th in the country for sacks and 7th in the SEC, generating 14 in six games. Arkansas has a quality secondary that has generated six interceptions in six games, tied for 27th in the nation and third in the SEC. The Hogs are 39th in the country in total defense and 8th in the SEC.
Final Thoughts
While the Arkansas Razorbacks have an explosive offense, as evinced by the above data, featuring a beautiful balance of rushing and passing, the data above shows that their defense merits more credit than it receives. The Hogs have a good defense and an elite offense, making them one of the nation’s best teams. Yes, they have lost two games. However, this is still a relatively young season, and they have much ahead that they can accomplish. As the Razorbacks’ win against the Volunteers suggests, they are a legitimate threat to any team they play.
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