Patriots vs. Texans Preview: Odds, Injuries, and Prediction for Divisional Round

The New England Patriots face the Houston Texans on Sunday, with both teams looking to gain ground in the AFC playoff race.

This game carries major implications for the Super Bowl chase, especially after the Texans’ dominant 10-game winning streak. With both teams dealing with momentum swings the Patriots scraping by the Chargers and the Texans dismantling the Steelers the stakes are high heading into Sunday. New England is looking to prove their resurgence under Mike Vrabel is real, while Houston aims to cement their status as the AFC’s team to beat behind a historic defense.

Game Details

• Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
• Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• TV/Streaming: CBS, Paramount+
• Odds: Texans -4.5 | O/U 41.5

Team Form & Recent Results

Patriots Recent Form

New England enters this game with grit but questions about offensive fluidity. They secured the No. 2 seed and the AFC East title, marking a successful second year for QB Drake Maye.

• Last Game: 16-3 Win vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card)
• Key Stats: The offense failed to score a touchdown in the first three quarters against L.A., relying on kicker Andy Borregales. Drake Maye was sacked five times.
• Trends: The defense remains stout, but the offense has struggled to finish drives, settling for field goals in crucial red-zone trips.
• Notable Performances: Rhamondre Stevenson managed 53 yards on 10 carries last week, while the defense held the Chargers to just a field goal.

Texans Recent Form

Houston is arguably the hottest team in football, riding a 10-game winning streak. Their defense is putting up historic numbers.

• Last Game: 30-6 Win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild Card)
• Momentum Indicators: The Texans haven’t lost in over two months. They are winning by an average margin of nearly nine points during this streak.
• Strengths: The defense ranks 1st in yards allowed (277.2 per game) and 2nd in points allowed (17.4).
• Recent Matchups: They completely overwhelmed Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, forcing multiple turnovers and scoring defensive touchdowns.

Key Storylines

• The Unstoppable Pass Rush: Houston features the terrifying duo of Will Anderson Jr. (12.5 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (16 sacks). They combined for 187 pressures this season. Can the Patriots’ offensive line keep Drake Maye upright?
• The Mike Vrabel & Caserio Connection: There are deep ties here. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel faces the team he once played for, while Texans GM Nick Caserio faces his former employer. The coaching staff trees are intertwined, adding a layer of strategic familiarity.
• Stroud’s Ball Security: Despite the win, Texans QB C.J. Stroud fumbled five times (losing two) against Pittsburgh. New England’s defense will be hunting for the ball.
• Injury Watch: Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez and Texans WR Nico Collins are both in concussion protocol. Their availability could dictate the success of the passing game on both sides.

Players to Watch

New England Patriots

• Drake Maye (QB): He must get the ball out quickly. With Houston’s pass rush bearing down, Maye’s ability to hit short, quick routes to avoid sacks is the key to the game.
• Milton Williams (DE): Coming off a 2.0 sack game against the Chargers, Williams needs to pressure Stroud into making the same ball-security mistakes he made last week.
• Stefon Diggs (WR): Facing his former team, Diggs needs to find soft spots in the zone or win 1-on-1 matchups against talented corners to give the Patriots an offensive spark.

Houston Texans

• Will Anderson Jr. (DE): A game-wrecker in every sense. If he disrupts the Patriots’ backfield early, it could be a long day for the home team.
• Derek Stingley Jr. (CB): With 4 interceptions this season, Stingley is a ballhawk who can flip the field instantly. He will likely shadow New England’s top targets.
• Woody Marks (RB): Marks provides balance to the offense, having racked up over 1,000 scrimmage yards. His ability to run effectively takes pressure off Stroud.

Matchup Breakdown

Offense vs. Defense

This is a classic strength vs. strength battle, but the Texans have the clear edge on paper. Houston’s defense allows negative EPA per dropback (-0.100), the best in the league. The Patriots’ offense has struggled to find the endzone recently, and they are facing a unit that allows fewer than 18 points per game. New England must establish the run with Stevenson and Henderson to slow down the pass rush, but Houston’s interior line (Rankins and Togiai) makes that difficult.

On the other side, Houston’s offense is efficient but prone to turnovers lately. The Patriots’ defense is capable of keeping the score low, but they need the offense to sustain drives to keep them fresh.

Coaching / Strategy Notes

For New England, the strategy is “quick game.” Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels cannot ask for deep drops; Maye needs to utilize screen passes and quick slants to negate the rush. Defensively, the Patriots need to contain the pocket and force Stroud to beat them with his arm, hoping to induce fumbles.

Houston simply needs to play their game: suffocate the run early, force New England into 3rd-and-long, and let the pass rushers feast. Offensively, they need to protect the football at all costs.

Prediction

The Patriots are resilient at home, and their defense will keep them in the game. However, the Texans’ defense is playing at a championship level right now. The mismatch between Houston’s pass rush and New England’s offensive line is too great to overlook. Expect a low-scoring, physical battle where Houston forces one critical turnover late to seal it.

Prediction: Texans 20, Patriots 13