Who Will Make the 12-Team College Football Playoff?
If you listened closely on Saturday night, somewhere between the confetti falling in Indianapolis and the stunned silence in Atlanta, you could hear the sound of the College Football Playoff selection committee collectively cracking open a bottle of extra-strength aspirin.
Championship Saturday didn’t just shuffle the deck; it threw the cards across the room and set the table on fire. We watched Indiana complete a fairy-tale run by knocking off the Buckeyes, while Georgia seemingly tried to erase Alabama from the history books in the SEC title game.
Now, we face the most dramatic Selection Sunday in recent memory. The field is crowded, the resumes are messy, and someone is going to be absolutely furious by noon. Here is how I project the final College Football Playoff field to look once the dust settles.
The Hoosier Miracle and Bulldog Revenge
Let’s be honest: If you had Indiana projected as the unbeaten, undisputed No. 1 seed back in August, you are a liar. But here we are. Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers didn’t just beat Ohio State; they out-toughed them. By taking down the committee’s top-ranked team, Indiana has locked up the top spot.
Meanwhile, Georgia avenged their only loss of the season in brutal fashion. They didn’t just beat Alabama; they dismantled them. That 28-7 drubbing likely vaults the Bulldogs to the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, securing them a nice week off to rest their legs.
The Alabama Conundrum
Here is where the committee earns its paycheck. What do we do with the Crimson Tide? On one hand, Alabama has three losses. In the old days, that’s a ticket to the Citrus Bowl. But their wins are elite, and they technically split the season series with Georgia. However, watching them put up a fight that resembled a wet paper bag in the SEC Championship Game leaves a bad taste.
The debate for the final spots comes down to a three-way staring contest between Notre Dame, Miami, and Alabama. Notre Dame and Miami sat at home eating popcorn this weekend, which, ironically, was the best thing they could have done for their resumes.
My projection? The College Football Playoff Committee keeps Bama in, but just barely. A three-loss team making the College Football Playoff sets a dangerous precedent, but the committee loves the SEC’s strength of schedule. Expect Alabama to slide to No. 10, essentially using Notre Dame as a buffer to avoid the Miami head-to-head debate.
It would be a mistake to keep Miami out of the College Football Playoff, though. They beat Notre Dame head-to-head earlier in this season. The committee should honor that result. Of Alabama, Notre Dame, and Miami, I would give the final two at-large bids to Miami and Notre Dame. Even though Alabama lost in the SEC Championship Game, they should be punished for the anemic product they put out on the field yesterday.
The Big 12 and the Rest Of the Field
Texas Tech treated BYU like a tune-up game rather than a conference championship, absolutely stomping the Cougars. That performance locks the Red Raiders into the top 4, securing a bye. As for Duke? Winning the ACC is a massive achievement, but with five losses, they are likely heading to a very nice bowl game rather than the playoff bracket. It’s unfair, it’s cruel, but it’s college football.
Final College Football Playoff Projection
So, after the wildest weekend of the year, here is how I see the committee ranking the top 12:
- Indiana (Big Ten Champ)
- Ohio State (At-Large)
- Georgia (SEC Champ)
- Texas Tech (Big 12 Champ)
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Tulane (G5 Rep)
- James Madison (Sun Belt Champ/G5 Rep)
