Playoff Watch: Can a Below-the-Cutline Driver Crash the Championship 4 Party?

Here we go again. It’s that time of year when every lap feels like a lifetime, and every point is worth its weight in gold. Welcome to the NASCAR Playoff Watch, where Championship 4 dreams are either realized or shattered in the blink of an eye. The checkered flag at Martinsville Speedway is looming, and with it comes the final decision on which four drivers will battle it out for the 2024 Cup Series championship.

The pressure is on, and you can feel it in the air, thick as the smell of burning rubber. So far in these playoffs, no driver from below the cutline has managed to claw their way into the next round. But Martinsville is a different beast. It’s a paperclip-shaped bullring where tempers flare and heroes are made.

Every driver on the bubble has a win here. They know what it takes. If your name isn’t Chase Briscoe or Denny Hamlin, you’ve got to be feeling the heat. So, before the engines roar to life this Sunday, let’s break down who’s sitting pretty and who’s got their work cut out for them.

Playoff Watch: Locked and Loaded

Two drivers can breathe a little easier this weekend. After their monumental wins, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have already punched their tickets to the Championship 4. They’re in. For them, Martinsville is about momentum, not desperation. They can race without the weight of the world on their shoulders, maybe even play spoiler to their teammates. The rest of the field doesn’t have that luxury.

Playoff Watch: On the Bubble

Christopher Bell: So Close, Yet So Far

Christopher Bell is sitting 37 points above the cutline, and you’d think that would be a comfortable spot for the championship 4 fight. But this is Martinsville, and comfort is a four-letter word. Bell has been on a tear in the playoffs, consistently finishing in the top eight. But remember last year?

A similar cushion evaporated, and he needed a walk-off win to advance to Championship 4.  If a driver below the line wins on Sunday, Bell’s lead over Kyle Larson shrinks to a single, terrifying point. The No. 20 team can’t afford a single mistake. One bad pit stop, one missed setup, and they could be looking at a repeat of last year’s nail-biter. It’s a gut-check moment for Bell.

Kyle Larson: A Cushion Built on Short-Track Prowess

Kyle Larson is cooling off a bit, but his 36-point cushion feels more solid than most. Why? Because this is Martinsville, and Larson has been a machine on short tracks in the Gen 7 car, with six top-six finishes. Talladega was a heartbreaker, running out of fuel on the final lap, but that’s restrictor-plate racing for you. Here, skill takes center stage. He knows a win from below the cutline is a real possibility, so he can’t just ride around. He has to attack. The expectation is that he’ll be a contender, but he needs a clean race to avoid any last-minute drama.

Playoff Watch: Win or Go Home

William Byron: In Need of a Lucky Break

If it could go wrong for William Byron in this round, it has. He got tangled up in someone else’s mess at the Roval and then spun out at Talladega. He’s 36 points below the cutline, and his back is firmly against the wall. It’s a win-or-go-home scenario, plain and simple. But here’s the thing about luck: it has to turn eventually. And Byron is a beast at Martinsville, with two wins in the Gen 7 car. He has the speed, he has the talent, and now he has the motivation of a cornered animal. Don’t be surprised if the No. 24 is battling for the lead when it counts.

Joey Logano: A Fighter’s Chance

Joey Logano is another driver facing a must-win situation, 38 points out of the lead. He and his teammate, Ryan Blaney, were in the perfect spot at Talladega until the bottom lane fell apart, sending them tumbling through the field. That’s the kind of bad luck that can define a season. But Logano thrives when the pressure is on. His record at Martinsville is stellar, with top-10 finishes stretching back to his infamous brawl with Hamlin in 2019. He needs a victory, and he’s not afraid to get his elbows out to get it.

Ryan Blaney: Can Lightning Strike Thrice?

Never, ever count out Ryan Blaney at Martinsville. Forty-seven points down, it seems impossible. But this is the guy who won this exact race last year to advance, and did it the year before to set up his 2023 championship. He comes alive when everything is on the line. It’s almost like he prefers it this way. Winning from below the cutline to get into the Championship 4 is his signature move. Can he pull it off for a third straight year? It would be legendary.

Chase Elliott: The Longshot with a Big Bite

At 62 points back, Chase Elliott’s path is the clearest and the hardest: win. There is no other option. After getting caught in an early wreck at Talladega, he left with a single point and a mountain to climb. But if there’s one place he can do it, it’s here. Elliott has been dominant at Martinsville in this car, leading a staggering 557 laps.

He nearly won this race last year. The No. 9 team knows how to find speed at the paperclip, and with the backing of his massive fanbase, you can bet he’ll leave everything on the track. The stage is set. Four drivers above the line, four below. It’s going to be a battle of wills with this Championship 4 fight, a test of nerves, and a classic Martinsville showdown. Who will rise to the occasion?