Vinícius Júnior Is Playing Like A Ballon d’Or Favorite Again

Vinícius Júnior looks sharper and surer of himself than at any point last season. The confidence leaps off the screen in the small things that often decide big matches, the first touch to escape pressure, the burst to the byline, the calm final pass. That feeling is now backed by fresh end product. 

He just put the seal on Brazil’s 5–0 win in Seoul with a cool finish and, crucially, supplied the final ball for Rodrygo’s second goal. It was the kind of complete winger’s outing that wins attention when awards chatter begins. 

The club picture is equally encouraging. Through the opening eight LaLiga matches, Vinícius has five goals and four assists for Real Madrid, a tally that shows a balance between scoring and creation rather than a one-dimensional purple patch. 

His shot quality and chance creation numbers sit near the top tier of the league as well, which tells you this is not a lucky streak. It is repeatable football. 

Momentum matters in Ballon d’Or seasons. Vinícius has already banked a signature league performance with a brace in Madrid’s 3–1 win over Villarreal, the type of game voters remember when they look back across a campaign. Form that bites in tight domestic fixtures is gold because it usually correlates with points and, eventually, trophies. 

The Numbers Back The Eye Test

Awards voters do not watch every minute, so numbers act as a map to the story. Start with the league. Five goals and four assists in eight matches is efficient output for a wide forward, particularly in a side that now funnels a lot of shots through Kylian Mbappé. Add the Brazil window and you see a player who is producing for club and country in the same month, which always pushes a candidate’s case. 

Real Madrid’s attack has been retooled around Mbappé’s central gravity, yet Vinícius is still finding lanes to impact boxes and box scores. Mbappé’s own blistering start of 14 goals in ten games across competitions by early October should be seen not as a threat but as a propeller. 

Defenders cannot overplay one star without leaving the other free, which raises the ceiling for both. A two-headed race inside one club can be awkward, although it often ends with at least one of them lifting major silverware and both living near the top of the voting. 

Internationally, the Brazil project under Carlo Ancelotti is beginning to find rhythm. Managers matter in award narratives because they shape the stage. 

A coherent Brazil raises the likelihood that Vinícius arrives at the 2026 World Cup in peak flow, and the tournament will fall inside the relevant Ballon d’Or window under France Football’s season-based criteria. A strong World Cup is still the loudest single advertisement a player can make. 

Who Are His Real Rivals

No candid assessment of Vinícius’ Ballon d’Or chances can ignore the competition. Mbappé, now settled in Madrid, is scoring at a historic clip to start the season. 

He will be in every conversation if that pace sustains through spring. Erling Haaland remains a machine in Manchester, the type of forward who can change the narrative in a few weeks with a spree in Europe. 

There is also the intra-Madrid split to consider. Voters sometimes pick one face to represent a collective. If Madrid surges toward domestic and European trophies, the final spotlight could land on the biggest totals or the biggest moments. That is why nights like Villarreal, or a decisive performance away to a top rival, are crucial. They build a highlight reel that competes with anyone’s. 

What Must Happen From Here

The pathway is clear. First, sustain league production. Five goals and four assists through eight LaLiga matches is an excellent baseline, and there is room to grow as combinations with Mbappé become second nature. 

The target should be a goals plus assists tally that sits either at the top of LaLiga or very close to it by spring. Second, light up Europe. Vinícius does not need to win the Champions League alone, yet he does need a quarterfinal or semifinal run marked by decisive contributions. 

The award tends to reward starring roles on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Third, keep the Brazil arrow pointing up. The Seoul friendly showed the blueprint: strike at least once, create at least once, and make it obvious who the most dangerous wide forward on the pitch is. 

One final piece sits slightly outside his control. The Ballon d’Or timeline now follows the European season, which means the 2026 World Cup will sit inside the window for the next award.

 A deep Brazil run with a few knockout round fireworks would tilt the field dramatically in Vinícius’s favor. Voters were persuaded last year by Rodri’s club and country double act, which shows how decisive summer tournaments can be when the margins are thin. 

So, does he have A Chance?

Yes. The form is real, the numbers are real, and the stage is set. Vinícius is not the only player starting at a Ballon d’Or pace this autumn, yet his profile is perfect for voters when the outcomes align. 

He plays for a title favorite with a global audience, he carries star weight for a Brazil that looks more organized under Ancelotti, and he is already delivering decisive actions in league matches and friendlies that people notice. 

The race is long and crowded, and nothing is guaranteed in an award that often comes down to a handful of moments. There is every reason to believe those moments are within his reach this season.