Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek are set to battle against each other for the 15th time in their careers. This time, the location is the clay courts of Madrid, where the Polish have historically thrived. The duo wants to be back in the winner’s circle after having a difficult last 12 months in search of silverware.

For Gauff, it is a chance to become dominant on what is preferred statistical surface. The American hasn’t really hit the courts running despite starting the season well at the United Cup. For Swiatek, it is a chance to finish her semifinal curse. The Polish player has lost a handful of the last four matches since lifting her fourth Roland Garros title last year. She won’t have a better chance than doing it on her favorite surface.

Gauff and Swiatek: Journey in Madrid so far

Gauff couldn’t have started the Madrid Open in a worse manner as she conceded the first set of her opening round against Dayana Yastremska 6-0. However, she wrestled back momentum to win 0-6 6-2 7-5. Since then, it has been a comfortable journey for the American as she has secured straight-set wins over Belinda Bencic and Mirra Andreeva.

On the other hand, Swiatek had a draw full of potential revenge matches. The first match was against Alexandra Eala, who had her number at the Miami Open earlier this year. Despite losing the first set against the young Filipino star, the Polish player won 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.Interestingly, Swiatek conceded two bagel sets after that, which were at the hands of Diana Shnaider and Madison Keys. However, the World No. 2 has battled past both of those matches to secure the semifinal spot in Madrid.

Gauff and Swiatek: 2025 so far

Iga Swiatek is without a title so far in 2025. In fact, the Olympic bronze medalist has not won a single title since winning Roland Garros last year. Even more astonishing fact? She has not even reached a final since her title win in Paris. Swiatek has lost five straight semifinals since winning the French Open. That includes a heartbreaking semifinal loss at the Paris Olympics last year and the Australian Open this year.

Gauff hasn’t had the best of seasons either. She started off promisingly by leading the USA to the United Cup win. The American seemed to have carried the momentum she gained from the WTA Finals title win last year. However, everything seems to have collapsed after the Australian Open quarterfinal loss. On a new surface, perhaps this is the time when she starts showing her potential.

Match Predictions

Swiatek and Gauff have met 14 times so far with the World No. 2 leading their battles 11-3. However, the good news for the American is that she has won their last two meetings. The first came at the WTA Finals in Riyadh last year, and the second was at the United Cup this year. However, this is clay, and historically, Swiatek has had everyone’s number on this surface. That includes Gauff, who has not beaten the reigning French Open champion in five meetings on the dirt.

With all the struggles both players have had coming into the semifinal, it pretty much comes down to the situation and its understanding. This is where Swiatek’s experience on clay comes in handy as she will have enough skillset to dismantle the American on clay once again.