The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers matched up in the postseason last season, resulting in a 24-21 win for San Francisco. This week gives us a rematch of that playoff game from over ten months ago, although both teams are drastically different from when they last faced off. The 49ers will be without several of their most important players, including Charvarius Ward, Brock Purdy, and Nick Bosa. The Packers will be without their superstar cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Both teams are also in drastically different positions than they were back in January. The Packers have built off their successful 2023 season, starting the season with a 7-3 record. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been anything but their usual elite selves, limping to a 5-5 start to the 2024 season. This game will also be in Green Bay’s backyard as opposed to San Francisco’s last time around, adding another advantage in Green Bay’s favor. Regardless of the circumstances, this is a do-or-die game for the San Francisco 49ers, and they’ll have to do it with grit and intensity that hasn’t always been there this season.
The Injuries to San Francisco
The injuries to this San Francisco 49ers team have piled up throughout the season and unfortunately for them, it’s reached a climax this week. They’ll be without superstar defensive end Nick Bosa, as well as their franchise quarterback Brock Purdy. There’s also a chance that they will not have their future hall-of-fame left tackle Trent Williams ready to go for this game. Add all that onto the list of key players already out for the 49ers, such as Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Javon Hargrave, and this 49ers team is far from the one Green Bay faced more than ten months prior.
The last time these two teams played, Brock Purdy didn’t have his best game. He was wildly inaccurate on a handful of throws and put the ball in harm’s way multiple times. The statistics also reflected this, with him averaging less than seven yards per attempt and him completing less than 60% of his passes. However, he did help lead San Francisco down the field for the go-ahead touchdown that won the game. The 49ers backup Quarterback, Brandon Allen, is far from equipped to replicate such a scenario. He has a 2-7 record as a starter with a 10:6 touchdown to interception ratio.
Even despite going against a Packers pass rush that only sacked Purdy once in their playoff matchup and has only gotten worse since that game, it’s reasonable to expect Brandon Allen to struggle immensely this game. It would help out Allen a lot if Trent Williams is able to go to this game, as he was fantastic against the Packers in their playoff game last season. If he isn’t able to go, Brandon Allen will probably struggle a lot this game. It’s very easy to imagine him panicking in the pocket and not trusting San Francisco’s offensive line to hold up in protection, even against a soft Packers pass-rushing unit.
The loss of Nick Bosa is arguably just as, if not more, catastrophic for the 49ers than losing Purdy. Bosa was San Francisco’s most consistent and arguably best defender so far this season. When the 49ers lost him last week versus the Seahawks, they gave up 14 points and almost 200 yards in less than two quarters. For a defensive line that has already struggled to replicate their past dominance with Bosa on the field, it’ll be that much harder against one of the better pass-blocking units in the NFL in the Green Bay Packers, led by Zach Tom. This was true even in their previous matchup, as they failed to sack Jordan Love once in that game.
Jordan Love’s Game to Lose
Jordan Love had an up-and-down game against the 49ers last season. While he did throw for two touchdowns, he also threw two bad interceptions that ultimately set San Francisco up to win the game. Thankfully for Love and the Packers, this iteration of the 49ers defense that he’ll be facing this time around is much more vulnerable. All of the aforementioned injuries aside, the 49ers defense was already underperforming for most of the 2024 season. They were playing at a good, but not elite level, and with a good chunk of their key guys out, Love and the Packers should be able to move the ball at will versus this Niner’s unit.
The 49ers have a good but not great rushing defense in 2024, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Niners were way healthier back in their playoff game against the Packers and still struggled significantly at stopping the Packers’ rushing attack. Green Bay ran for 136 yards on almost five yards per carry, with Aaron Jones especially tearing them up for over a hundred rushing yards. And the Packers have only gotten better at running their offense since that point. With the addition of Josh Jacobs, the Packers have the 4th best rushing attack in the league so far in 2024.
Simply put, this part of the game is something the Packers have already executed well against San Francisco the last time they played them, and it’s become an even bigger strength for them in 2024. This is going to be a tough challenge for the 49ers to overcome defensively. Fred Warner is going to be pulled in a million different directions, and we’ve already seen him fall out of the DPOY race because of San Francisco’s deficiencies in pass coverage with their linebackers. This is a matchup where the 49ers are outgunned and schematically inferior to the Packers at this point in the season.
Final Thoughts
As great of a coach as Kyle Shanahan is, this will probably be too big of a hurdle for him and his team to overcome. This game would be a toss-up even if both teams were completely healthy, but with the Packers being mostly unscathed by the injury bug and the 49ers being decimated by it, it leaves San Francisco with no room for error this Sunday. San Francisco needs to hope that Jordan Love will throw a couple of bad interceptions; otherwise, this is the Packers game to lose, plain and simple.
