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It has been an odd US Open, as both No.3 player Carlos Alcaraz and No.2 Novak Djokovic have lost. Both matches were considerable upsets. Alcaraz’s loss was the most shocking, with him losing in straight sets to 74th-ranked Botic van de Zandschlup. Adding to the upset value, the Dutch player had never beaten a top-10 player in a major before. Djokovic lost to 28th-ranked Alexei Popyrin in four sets. These two losses have cracked the tournament wide open for others. No.1 Jannik Sinner is the favorite right now while Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev are the other finalist favorites.
The 2024 US Open will be the first Grand Slam tournament since 2002 that the Big Three of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal will not be the winner. Isn’t that crazy to think about? That shows the dominance that these three legends have had on the sport over the past 22 years.
Djokovic’s Recent Dominance
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While the Big Three were certainly dominant for over a decade, this stat specifically shows how incredible Djokovic has been over the past six years. Nadal hasn’t won a major in two years due to multiple injuries. Federer retired in 2022 and his last Grand Slam win was at the 2018 Australian Open. At age 38, Nadal will likely retire within the next year or two. Injuries continue to pile up for him, and like Federer, there comes an age where you just can’t recover as fast as you used to and you have to call it quits.
At age 37, Djokovic has not slowed down yet. From 2018 to 2023, he won at least one Grand Slam a year. In four of those years, he won two Grand Slams in a year. Djoker has been the model for consistency, dominance, and endurance. Federer and Nadal certainly had amazing glory days, but Djokovic has surpassed them, winning 24 Grand Slam titles to Nadal’s 22 and Federer’s 20. Nevertheless, together these three guys had a chokehold on men’s tennis for a decade-plus. 22 years later and 66 combined Grand Slam titles between the three of them, it’s weird to know that none of them will win a major this year. Yet it is amazing that the Big Three were at the top of the tennis world for so long.
Next Big Three
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From one Big Three to the new generation, here is my list. First, there’s the 21-year-old Carlos Alcaraz. With 15 titles and four Grand Slam wins in just seven years on the pro tour, Alcaraz has had quite the start to his career. He beat Nadal in 2021 and has already beaten Djokovic three times. Two of them were in the Wimbledon final, where Alcaraz bested the Djoker in both 2023 and 2024. The next player is the 23-year-old Jannik Sinner. He has won 15 titles and 1 Grand Slam, the 2024 Australian Open. Sinner has an amazing serve, recording the sixth-most aces in 2024 so far with 380. The redhead also has great power and net skills. Sinner is a complete player.
And the final player is 28-year-old Daniil Medvedev. The Russian has 20 titles in his 10-year career. His one Grand Slam win came at the 2021 US Open where he beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Medvedev can go toe to toe with the best players today. He is a contender in every tournament he plays in. He has beaten Alcaraz twice. One win was at Wimbledon in 2021 and the other was at the 2023 US Open. Other notable wins in his career include winning five times against Djokovic, seven against Jannik Sinner, and a whopping 13 against Alexander Zverev. It’s not always pretty when Medvedev plays but he wins at a high rate.
Final Thoughts
In the later years of Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal’s careers, there didn’t seem to be any young stars that could bring in the next generation of men’s tennis. Some thought Dominic Thiem was going to be the next big thing. He has been a solid player, but he didn’t end up the biggest new star. He has won 17 titles and the 2020 US Open in a 14-year career. Compare that with a player like Jannik Sinner who has won 15 titles and one Grand Slam title in seven years and Thiem doesn’t look as great. Thiem hasn’t played that much in 2024 due to a recurring wrist injury. He announced his retirement after his first-round loss at this year’s US Open. He didn’t quite pan out long term.
After all this talk about who could be the next group of stars after Novak, Roger, and Rafa leave, we have found our new Big Three. It’s an exciting time in tennis. In terms of winning, I expect Alcaraz to be the next Djokovic, Sinner to be the next Nadal, and Medvedev to be the next Federer. While these players will have a hard time replicating the greatness of the Big Three that came before them, they can still be great, just a different type of great. It will be exciting to see what the future holds for Alcaraz, Sinner, and Medvedev along with the rest of the talented players on the ATP Tour.
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