Before the 2023 NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons were desperate for a franchise quarterback. The QB position featured Desmond Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick, and Taylor Heineke, a backup quarterback who showed promise with a few good starts in Washington. But instead of addressing their greatest positional need with the eighth pick, the team chose a running back—Bijan Robinson. Was that a mistake?
Early Picks Should Fill Foundational Holes
Most draft analysts agree that having an early first-round pick indicates a roster in dire need of foundational building blocks, not just a cherry-on-the-top skilled weapon. So, questioning Robinson’s pick doesn’t diminish recognition of his talent. Instead, it casts doubt about the positional value of a running back.
The New York Giants faced a similar situation when they chose Saquon Barkley as the second pick in the 2018 draft. At that time, the Giants had an aging quarterback and inept offensive line. Despite Barkley’s undeniable talent, general manager Dave Gettleman showed more hubris than financial acumen and positional value awareness with the pick. The result? The Giants squandered the best years of a “generationally talented” running back and missed the opportunity to secure a new franchise quarterback like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
The Top Five NFL Positions Focus on the Long Ball
The NFL is a passing league. While running backs and run-stopper defensive linemen were roster centerpieces in years past, today, their worth has been superseded by five other positions:
#5: Wide receiver. Every quarterback needs at least one top receiver. A WR1 should be big-bodied to grab contested balls or have roadrunner speed to fly past defensive backs. Crisp route running is also a must.
#4: Cornerback. To neutralize the passing game, every team needs a cornerback to match the WR1’s speed and tackle the big guys. Generally, corners are good at one of these skills—covering or tackling—but if teams can find a gem who can do both well, he can be left on an island while the rest of the D battles at the line.
#3: Edge rusher. Along with a cover corner, rosters require someone to disrupt the rhythm and timing of the passer. These pass rushers need to get in the QB’s face and make him uncomfortable. So, a pass rusher—an outside linebacker or defensive end—is the next most valuable position.
The edge rusher and corner succeed in tandem. Even the best cover corner will eventually get beat without a pass rush. And with a cover corner, the rush is more effective.
#2: Left tackle. Most QBs are right-handed, so they need someone to protect their blind side when they drop back to pass. The best-left tackles recognize and pick up schemes and bull rushers to give the team’s “commander” time to make the play.
#1: Quarterback. Unsurprisingly, the quarterback is the most important position on the team. This is the offensive leader—the “commander” and decision-maker. Today’s offensive styles require a top-tier quarterback to be successful.
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Top Picks Should Not Be Wasted
Yes, selecting a quarterback is historically difficult to get right. Unfortunately, there’s Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen for every Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. But regardless of the frequent swings and misses, finding a winning quarterback in the later rounds is much harder, so wasting a top pick on a lower-valued position doesn’t make sense.
Back to the Falcon’s pick of Robinson: Should Atlanta have reached for a lower-ranked passer, like Will Levis, traded up to land one of the three quarterbacks taken in the top five, or secured the best player on their board, as we assume Robinson was. Time will only tell, but if you analyze the pick based on positional value, recent history says that a running back should not be taken even close to the top of the draft.
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Kris Zucchi is a lifelong N.Y. sports fan. While the business of sports is her primary focus, she can talk about every sport, all the time!
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