The moment the New York Yankees lost the World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, speculation about the magnitude of the contract Juan Soto would sign in free agency this MLB offseason. Recently, John Heyman of the New York Post wrote that a Juan Soto contract could approach a total value of $700 million, presumably over 13 years.
That figure would place Soto in the same ballpark, figuratively speaking, as Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers. The difference would be that Soto would receive his money now. Ohtani has deterred 97% of his haul to give the Dodgers salary flexibility. Soto is not expected to provide any team, including the Yankees, a present-day discount.
Teams Reportedly in on Juan Soto
It has been reported that Juan Soto will meet personally with the New York Mets owner, Steve Cohen, this week. Presently, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, San Fransisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and Toronto Blue Jays are all interested in signing the 26-year-old left-handed hitter. One super intriguing suitor who has expressed interest is his original team, the Washington Nationals. Soto and the Nationals won the 2019 World Series together. Soto has said a reunion is possible.
Also, a dark horse in Tampa Rays has emerged from the field. The rumor of the Rays’ interest is intriguing, given the team’s historically lower payrolls. If a team like the Rays shows serious interest in him, could another long shot like the Seattle Mariners make a late appearance?
Comparing Him to Shohei Ohtani
Clearly, the bar for total contract value was set last offseason when the Dodgers signed Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract. But in Ohtani’s case, he elected to defer $680 million of that total. Effectively, Ohtani appears on the Dodgers’ books, earning $2 million a year for the next ten years.
The total value of Soto’s impending contract may very well match that of Ohtani’s but is likely to be for more years, presumably thirteen years until his age forty seasons, and to be paid out in present value. So, what would a team be getting in Soto compared to what the Dodgers are getting from Ohtani?
Looking at just last season, Ohtani hit .310/.390/.646 with 54 home runs, 130 RBI, 134 runs, and stole 59, creating the 50/50 club in the process. Ohtani led the league in WAR (9.2 at Baseball Reference), PA, R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. Ohtani’s OPS+ of 190 was roughly twice as good as the league average. And he won the MVP.
By comparison, Juan Soto hit .288/.419/.569, with 41 HR, 109 RBI, 128 R, and just 7 SB, creating 7.9 bWAR. Of course, Soto also plays leftfield at around league average.
A Soto Signing Will Take Time
Both Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, have made it clear that they are open to any and all offers and that they are in no hurry to make a decision. After a shaky off-season for clients last year, Boras certainly has his eye on making him the highest-paid player in baseball. The numbers would suggest that Ohtani is the better player. He is younger, though. And as talks begin this week, the Yankees will just have to wait their turn.
