Tomorrow’s Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will come down to the wire. These teams are very familiar with each other, having faced off three times in the last five years dating back to Super Bowl LIV. They know each other strengths and weaknesses all too well.
Whether or not either team can exploit each other’s weaknesses is a different story. Even being eight months removed from last season’s Super Bowl; these teams are drastically different now than they were back then. Two main factors will dictate the outcome of this game for the San Francisco 49ers.
The Line Of Scrimmage
For almost every NFL game, the line of scrimmage is what decides the outcome of games and that is no exception here. The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has been under some scrutiny since the Super Bowl loss last year where they failed to pick up two blitzes from the Chiefs on crucial third down moments. This year hasn’t been that much different for the 49ers in terms of their consistency on the field.
Even despite having the league’s best left tackle in Trent Williams, the Niners offensive line is considered an average at best unit. Although, they did perform well against Seattle’s defense last Thursday night, giving up only ten pressures all game. The San Francisco 49ers have struggled against teams that rely on the blitz, such as the Vikings in Week 2 of this season. Brock Purdy got sacked six times and got hurried nine times in that game.
Chiefs Feature Stout Defense
Unfortunately for the San Francisco 49ers, the Chiefs are the exact type of team that can expose that weakness. They blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the league through six weeks. The thing is, San Francisco has seen this before from the Chiefs. In last season’s Super Bowl, the Niners had great success in the first half moving the football, that is until the Chiefs started to dial up the blitz. The Niners are going to have to recognize what KC’s Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, is doing and adjust accordingly.
Lastly, the San Francisco 49ers are going to have to run the ball efficiently against this Chiefs defense. They had issues doing it in the Super Bowl last season, and Kansas City’s defense has only gotten better against the run this season. The Chiefs rank top five in rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns allowed so far. Running the football won’t be any easier for the 49ers without their superstar Running Back Christian McCaffrey this time around.
Man-To-Man Coverage
On defense for the San Francisco 49ers, this game is going to come down to if they can get away with playing man coverage against Kansas City. On paper, they should be able to this time around. Rashee Rice is not playing in this game and Kansas City is surely going to miss his production. JuJu Smith-Schuster, whom the Chiefs just signed, is questionable with a hamstring injury. If he doesn’t play that leaves KC with Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman as the Chiefs top three options at WR.
Theoretically, the San Francisco 49ers should be able to play man coverage more than they usually do. Fred Warner and another defender can bracket Kelce and play man across the board. That’s the thing about the Chiefs though. On paper, they look more exploitable on offense than they have been in the past, but they just find a way to persevere through their weaknesses. Patrick Mahomes has been facing two deep coverages regularly for the past five seasons, and while it has worked to take away the explosive plays, the Chiefs have mastered their counterattack against that style of defense.
Kansas City’s Offensive Gameplan
The Chiefs run a methodical brooding offense that, while it can make big plays if needed, oftentimes is more reminiscent of a ball-control style of offense. Another aspect is the blitz for the San Francisco 49ers. They don’t blitz very often, that’s not their gameplan and it hasn’t ever been their prerogative under Kyle Shanahan. They like to bring four and play with seven in coverage. What you see is what you get from the Niners on defense.
This also goes to show why Kansas City runs more man coverage than San Francisco in these matchups. The Niners have seen zone coverage in practice against their own defense and are accustomed to shredding it. However, Brock Purdy has merely been mediocre to above average against man coverage this year, and that will factor into this game with Jauan Jennings out for this week’s game. With Deebo Samuel not being very good against man this year, it raises questions about how San Francisco will do this week against KC’s aggressive man coverage style of defense.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, the San Francisco 49ers are not equipped to beat the Chiefs in this game. There are too many questions about their offensive line and schemes on offense and defense in the passing game. The Chiefs may not be flashy like they once were, but they play smart and disciplined football, and San Fran is going to be able to match Kansas City in either of those aspects of the game.
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